DAS Office of Economic Analysis Presents the August Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast

Carl Riccadonna, state chief economist and Michael Kennedy, senior economist of the Department of Administrative Services (DAS) Office of Economic Analysis (OEA), presented the latest economic outlook and revenue forecast to the legislative committee on finance and revenue. The quarterly revenue forecasts serve to open the revenue forecasting process to public review and is the basis for much of the Oregon state government budgeting process.

What is different about this forecast?

The Office of Economic Analysis provides quarterly forecasts for the state of Oregon’s major revenue sources, including all sources contributing to the General Fund (Personal and Corporate Income Tax, etc.), Lottery and the Corporate Activity Tax. The August economic outlook assessed past projections, legislatively approved budget and the impact of federal legislation H.R.1 in Oregon. The state legislature concluded the 2025 session with $472.8 million in available funds, intended to buffer against economic risks. However, the passage of H.R.1 is now estimated to reduce state revenues by $888.2 million over the course of the 2025-27 biennium.

Revenue Forecast

The August revenue forecast projects the 2025-27 General Fund ending balance will be down $621.1 million due to economic changes, the passage of H.R.1 and adjustments to kicker credit. As a result, the projected end balance for the biennium has declined by $845.5 million, a shift from previously projected $472.8 million surplus to a negative balance of $372.7 million.

About the Office of Economic Analysis

The state chief economist oversees the Office of Economic Analysis within the Department of Administrative Services and provides objective forecasts of the state’s economy, revenue, populations, corrections population and Youth Authority population. These forecasts are used across state government, and by the public for a variety of reasons, notably to inform the state budgeting process. For more information about the Office of Economic Analysis and recent forecasts visit https://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/pages/index.aspx.