AGP Executive Report

South Caucasus Deal-Making: Armenia and Azerbaijan kept economic and transport links on the agenda, with officials meeting at the UN to unblock corridors and trade. Azerbaijan Investment Push: Azerbaijan’s economy minister framed the country as more than energy—positioning it as a production and regional value-chain platform, with free economic zones and connectivity at the center of the Baku investment forum. Wall Street Rate-Path Test: Investors are bracing for US jobs and inflation data that could shift expectations for interest-rate hikes, while bond-market pressure keeps a lid on the rally. Gaza Economic Collapse: UNCTAD warned Gaza is in the world’s worst recorded economic crisis, with most businesses damaged and per-capita output collapsing. UK War-Driven Fiscal Strain: The UK chancellor said Middle East escalation is hitting inflation, growth, and borrowing costs—threatening the October budget. Maker Skills Gap: The World Economic Forum argued “maker” skills for AI, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing aren’t scaling fast enough, urging better training and credentials. Nigeria Capital Markets-to-Real Economy: Nigeria’s stockbrokers conference plans to focus on turning capital-market growth into manufacturing, agriculture, infrastructure, and SME investment. Kenya Logistics SEZ: Africa Global Logistics launched an 18,000 sqm special economic zone in Syokimau to speed customs, storage, and multimodal trade access. Tourism Index: WEF’s 2026 travel rankings put Japan first and India at 31st, citing infrastructure gains but ongoing workforce and sustainability gaps.

Digital Trade & Governance: China urged countries to adapt to the “torrent” of the digital economy, calling for better connectivity, a smaller digital divide, and stronger rules to keep trade freer and more orderly. Healthcare Economics: Puerto Rico’s hospice sector generated about $142M in economic activity, supports 1,417 jobs, and is estimated to deliver $1.19 in benefits for every $1 spent. Middle East Economic Shock: A UNCTAD report says Gaza is in the world’s “most severe crisis on record,” with recovery needs put at $71.5B and most productive activity effectively halted. Energy Costs Ripple: Diesel prices are surging again, squeezing businesses and feeding pressure for policy moves like a potential export ban. Mobility & Competition: Uber’s financial momentum is strong, but robotaxis raise the question of whether its rider network can hold its “moat.” Local Impact Studies: A county study links sewage pollution to major visitor-spending losses for Coronado and Imperial Beach. Policy & Growth Outlook: ADB lifted Malaysia’s 2026-27 growth forecasts on stronger tech exports while warning El Niño risks could keep inflation elevated. Housing & Rates: Mortgage rates hit their highest level since May 2024 as the Iran war keeps financial conditions tight. Blue Economy Investment: Reports put the ocean economy at $2.6T and stress the need for bankable projects and financing to scale sustainable “blue” solutions.

AI & Growth Outlook: The IMF says AI could lift productivity and investment (with AI spending potentially topping $2T in 2026) but also risks job disruption and wage pressure. Global Demand & Resilience: OECD projects global growth at 2.9% in 2026 and flags Middle East uncertainty; meanwhile euro-zone activity accelerated in September despite energy shocks. Regional Economies: Zambia grew 7.2% in Q2 as inflation eased to 6.1%, while Jordan showed “notable resilience” in early 2026 with EBRD citing agriculture, manufacturing and trade. Policy & Business Climate: Abu Dhabi extended “Tajer Abu Dhabi” rules to help firms operate without physical premises; Malaysia’s Budget 2027 talk centers on boosting private consumption amid softer demand. Trade & Investment: Armenia and Iran leaders pushed expanded trade ties; China and the US reached consensus on tariffs and trade councils and held an AI dialogue. Finance & Markets: Mongolia reported bank loan growth of 14.3% with non-performing loans at 5.3%; Nigeria’s NASD OTC bourse floated a N12bn rights issue for tech and infrastructure. Work & Productivity: UK research estimates poorly designed workplaces cost £71.4bn a year in lost GDP.

Fuel & inflation pressure: New Zealand’s June 2026 quarter showed petrol up 20.1% and diesel up 47.7%, squeezing households and businesses even as quarterly GDP rose 0.2% and retail sales fell. Energy relief policy: Pakistan’s petrol relief scheme offers Rs100 per litre to eligible low- and middle-income drivers, aiming to blunt knock-on costs for food and transport. Diesel ripple debate (US): US economists say expanding E15 could ease diesel pressure by narrowing the ethanol “blend wall,” while Heritage’s chief economist warns diesel spikes can lift core inflation for months. Global growth signals: ADB lifted Vietnam’s growth forecasts to 7.8% (2026) and 7.6% (2027), citing stronger demand and investment; Europe’s euro zone PMI surprised to the upside despite energy shocks. Local economic development: Kentucky launched a statewide entrepreneurship initiative with JPMorganChase listening sessions; Indiana pushed Japan ties and backed Kokomo’s $32.8m conference center via READI; Western North Carolina unveiled a long-term recovery plan after Hurricane Helene. Trade, ports & geopolitics: Namibia’s public broadcaster teamed with Namport to spotlight how ports underpin everyday consumer goods; the US-Denmark-Greenland deal also adds economic restrictions tied to sensitive sectors. Markets & politics: Rural US voters report broad economic frustration in an AP-KFF poll, while US stocks slipped as oil stabilized and bond yields rose on stronger activity data.

IMF Watch: Sri Lanka’s economy stayed resilient, with Q2 growth at 4.2% and 11 straight quarters of expansion, but inflation rose to 8% in August as oil prices climbed; reserves hit $6.9bn and debt restructuring is largely done, while downside risks remain tied to Middle East uncertainty and global trade. OECD Outlook: The OECD lifted India’s FY27 growth forecast to 7.1% and warned global growth is stabilizing but still vulnerable to energy and fiscal strain; it also trimmed Türkiye’s 2026 growth to 2.7% while raising inflation. UK Growth: OECD said the UK outlook brightened for 2026 (1.1%) on lower inflation and new support, but growth is set to slow to 1.0% in 2027. Energy & Industry: South Africa’s Central Energy Fund plans major Sapref refinery upgrades (and possible expansion) to cut dependence on imported refined fuels, while also weighing a phased restart of Mossel Bay. Tech & Finance: Google Cloud says it will fund 50,000 AI learning opportunities in Qatar, aiming for large economic and productivity gains; China’s “panda bond” market is accelerating as overseas issuers tap yuan debt. Local Business & Risks: Kelantan, Malaysia faces rising telecom infrastructure vandalism and theft, threatening coverage and daily commerce. Policy & Markets: Nigeria’s CBN cut rates to 23%, but manufacturers warn lending rates must fall further to restore competitiveness.

AI & Digital Economy: Silicon Valley’s next shift is toward AI agents that sit between companies and customers, changing how people browse, buy, and book—while economists warn the AI boom may not add jobs but could raise electricity and water bills via data centers. Global Outlook: The World Economic Forum says the global economy is stabilizing, but geopolitical conflict is the top risk, with many chief economists expecting asset-price corrections and continued cost-of-living pressure. Energy & Prices: U.S. diesel export bans are being debated, but ag economists warn they may not lower pump prices and could disrupt markets; Kansas analysts also expect diesel to stay high through 2027. Policy & Labor: Canada’s PM Mark Carney pushes major economic legislation and project-approval changes, including a national-interest mechanism that critics say could weaken the right to strike. Finance & Credit: Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court decision clears the way for constitutional changes tied to IMF anti-corruption goals, while Fitch upgrades its credit rating to B- amid improving resilience. Trade & Security: Japan and the U.S. are deepening economic-security cooperation; Trump backs the India-Middle East-Europe corridor as energy infrastructure is pressured by West Asia conflict. Local Growth: Kansas and Indiana highlight workforce and development wins, while Seattle reports a $889M FIFA World Cup boost.

Credit & Reform Watch: Fitch upgraded Sri Lanka’s long-term rating to B- (stable outlook), citing macro-stabilization, better fiscal/external balances, and modest FX reserve rebuilding, though debt and debt-service risks remain high. Consumer Sentiment: A Philippines SWS survey found 33% of adults expect the economy to improve in the next 12 months (net optimism +10, a rebound from March). AI & Productivity: A UK report argues employer incentives for AI skills training could lift productivity and add £80bn to the economy by 2035. Global Growth Split: Allianz Trade warns a three-speed world is emerging as AI/IT and resilient sectors outperform while cyclical, margin-stressed industries lag. Energy & Markets: Gold slipped on a stronger dollar and hawkish Fed signals; European stocks rose as oil prices fell. Regional Policy & Trade: Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon economy is near 70% of GDP, while Qatar’s tax authority joined a fiscal-policy forum on tax transformation. Local Business & Housing: Jordan’s residential building permits rose 10.7% in early 2026, signaling continued housing demand. Fuel Pressure (Nigeria): PETROAN urged Nigeria to restart government refineries to ease rising fuel prices.

Low-altitude economy in China: A Tsinghua professor says China’s “low-altitude” push—eVTOL, drones, and integrated air-ground transport—could grow into a trillion-yuan pillar industry, though flying cars are still in pilot and breakthrough phases. Food prices & competition policy (NZ): ACT says historic supermarket merger data undercuts breakup claims, arguing any savings would be small and wiped out by inflation. Canada AI for forecasts: Bank of Canada says it uses AI in forecasting, sentiment tracking, and data cleaning. IMF/World Bank debt overhaul: IMF revises its low-income debt risk framework, with changes due in late 2027 and more focus on domestic debt and climate pressures. Venezuela + IMF: President Delcy Rodríguez meets IMF leadership on reserves and the “Venezuela Renace Plan.” Latin America outlook: ECLAC warns of low growth and high uncertainty tied to commodity volatility, high rates, and weaker trade. West Virginia tourism boom: Tourism hits a record $9.4B impact in 2025, supporting tens of thousands of jobs. ASEAN digital economy: Philippines advances ASEAN DEFA to set shared rules for AI, data protection, e-commerce, and payments. US politics & cost of living: Polls show Trump’s approval at record lows as voters blame cost-of-living pressures amid the Iran war. Energy squeeze: Diesel prices likely stay high for at least a year, pressuring farmers and eventually consumers. Qatar investment momentum: Qatar reports strong foreign company registrations and major FDI discussions ahead of UNGA.

IMF Outlook: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that stubborn inflation, higher debt-service costs and AI financing risks mean the world economy still faces elevated uncertainty, with central banks likely to keep tightening longer. Central Banking: Jordan’s central bank raised rates by 25 bps to support the dinar and fight inflation, while African policymakers are widely expected to keep rates high amid energy and food-price shocks. AI & Infrastructure: India’s data-centre demand is set to surge as AI adoption grows, and Qatar is pushing data infrastructure and free-zone investment to attract firms despite security risks. Geopolitics & Energy Costs: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply as US-Iran tensions rose, while gold slipped on rate and Middle East risk expectations. Regional Economy Watch: Iran’s GDP contracted more than 10% during the US war period, and the Philippines faces a rising debt path toward P21.48T by end-2027 even if a crisis is not immediate. Business & Deals: Maldives signed commercial terms for a USD 12B waterfront and marina project, and Nigeria’s NNPC-backed push argues Africa needs an integrated approach to energy financing.

AI & Growth Watch: The IMF’s Georgieva warned the world economy is resilient but still faces stubborn inflation, higher debt costs and AI-financing risks, with AI disappointment potentially triggering shocks. US Investment Shift: US data shows private spending on data centers and information-processing gear has overtaken residential construction, underscoring how AI is redirecting capital. China’s Two-Speed Economy: China’s AI surge is outpacing a weaker broader economy, with youth joblessness, falling property sales and softer consumer demand raising questions about whether AI can lift growth. Regional Trade & Supply Chains: ASEAN and South Korea called for closer, practical trade cooperation as geopolitical tensions and unilateral actions raise costs for businesses, especially SMEs. Energy & Industry: Singapore’s electronics exports jumped 131.8% as AI-driven data-center demand supports semiconductors and related hardware. Policy & Rates: Australia’s intergenerational report is set to flag possible further tax cuts, while Nigeria’s central bank faces a rate decision balancing disinflation against petrol-price and exchange-rate pressures. Local Economic Boosts: Nebraska City’s Applejack Festival draws 100,000+ visitors and supports local vendors, while Nigeria’s Idu industrial zone is set for 24-hour power via a 50MW electrification project.

AI & Politics: A Washington Post analysis says Trump’s push to accelerate AI is tied to personal financial stakes, raising fresh conflict-of-interest questions as tariffs and tech rules loom. Public Finance: France warned its debt will hit the highest level since 1978 as deficits keep running hot, with debt projected above EU reference limits. Geopolitics & Trade: The US-China summit is set to focus on tariffs, critical minerals, and AI controls, with both sides seeking leverage. Growth vs Disruption (Pakistan): Finance Minister Aurangzeb says protests, strikes, and road blockages could cost Pakistan up to Rs120bn a day, even as reserves and the current account improve. Infrastructure for Connectivity (China): China opened the Pinglu Canal to cut shipping distances and logistics costs, aiming to deepen China-ASEAN trade. Energy & Cost Pressures (Türkiye): Türkiye plans to prioritize public investment to boost growth and resilience, while warning of a “perfect storm” in global energy markets. EU Productivity & Risks: An IMF paper says AI could lift Europe’s productivity but may widen inequality and strain power grids without deeper integration. Local Economy (Chile): Chile’s recession risk is showing up in everyday spending, with even popular street food prices rising. Digital Economy (Malaysia): Malaysia’s PM adviser framed childcare as part of the family economy, while coverage also highlights how e-sports is expanding into broader digital jobs.

MSMEs & Local Traders: Malaysia’s Domestic Trade minister said a “grassroots gap” exists between GDP growth and everyday conditions, pushing empowerment for MSMEs and traders to make growth more inclusive. Food & Jobs via Value Chains: Uganda’s Busoga festival spotlighted coffee/cocoa value addition and agro-tourism as a jobs engine, while Guyana plans furniture and jewellery training to create local income. Conflict Hits Costs: A regional leader warned West Asia disruptions are straining global oil and gas shipments, feeding higher prices and uncertainty. AI Policy Push (US): Trump announced an “AI Force” and an AI coordinator, arguing against broad AI restrictions as data-center costs and safety concerns rise. Markets & FX (Nigeria): The naira held near N1,331/$1 at NAFEM; NGX gained on telecom/financial stocks, with broader sector gains lifting the All-Share Index. Energy Prices: Oil slipped but stayed above $100 as strikes and supply risks keep investors cautious. Regional Trade: Uzbekistan and Syria agreed to set up a joint economic and trade committee, while ASEAN economic ministers met in Manila to advance trade, digital transformation, and MSMEs. Public Finance (EU/Bulgaria): Bulgaria’s finance minister discussed AI’s impact and banking competitiveness, stressing capitalization and manageable regulatory burden.

Oil & geopolitics: Economists are scrambling to model the endgame as the US-Iran conflict keeps pushing energy costs higher, with diesel hitting record levels and JPMorgan saying it lacks a baseline view of oil markets. Energy prices & Europe: Eurozone finance ministers in Dublin weighed an oil-and-gas windfall tax as Brent stays above $100 and energy shocks threaten inflation and competitiveness. Central banking & policy autonomy: Nepal’s finance committee endorsed keeping the government’s power to issue directives to the central bank, while also proposing shorter terms for the governor—raising fresh autonomy concerns. Sovereign credit signals: Cyprus won an S&P upgrade to A with a positive outlook, while Greece’s recent rating improvements were framed as proof of policy resilience. Local economic pressure: Indiana’s housing affordability gap widened, and Colorado’s forecast debate centers on cost-of-living strain and Medicaid crowding out other priorities. Blue economy & jobs: Gabon is renegotiating its EU fisheries deal to boost local value and sovereignty, while Odisha urged coastline cleanup to protect livelihoods and marine ecosystems. AI & biotech: Anthropic opened a wet lab in the Bay Area to expand life-science work, arguing real lab testing still matters. Trade & investment diplomacy: China’s vice premier is set to visit the US for economic talks, and Jordan is pitching a near-$15B EU investment pipeline across energy, transport, water, tourism and clean tech.

Trade & Growth Risks (Canada/BC): Economist Trevor Tombe warns B.C. could lose 11,000 jobs and $3.8B in exposed exports if Trump’s trade war tariffs bite harder, urging Premier David Eby to seek a fresh mandate. Markets & Rates (U.S./Europe): European investors are trimming exposure to U.S. Treasuries as yields stay near multi-year highs and U.S. debt tops $40T, with some shifting toward non-government fixed income. Energy Costs (Diesel/Global): Diesel hits record territory (U.S. average about $6.44/gal), raising transport and food costs; globally, oil-price spikes are tightening “wiggle room” as supply fears and conflict disrupt flows. Nigeria Macro Policy: Nigeria’s Finance Ministry and the CBN sign an MoU to formalize fiscal-monetary coordination on inflation, debt, exchange-rate stability, and cash management. Digital Payments (Ghana): Access Bank Ghana and Visa launch “Visa Accept” to help nano/small merchants take smartphone-based payments and build transaction records for credit. Labor & Affordability (U.S.): North Carolina AFL-CIO highlights wage stagnation and fuel-price pressure at its convention. Agriculture (U.S.): Purdue economist says tight corn/soy stocks could keep prices elevated, depending on the USDA crop report. Business & Jobs (Nigeria/Enugu): NACCIMA backs Enugu Governor Peter Mbah’s security-first push and targets a $30B economy by 2031. Infrastructure & Connectivity (U.K./Scotland): Glasgow Airport wins an economic impact award, citing new routes and restored North America connections. AI & Work (Canada): Research using an AI prompt flags data-entry and routine admin roles as most at risk, fueling skills and competitiveness questions.

Middle East Energy Shock: A UN ESCWA estimate puts the US-Iran conflict’s first-month hit to Arab economies at nearly $150B (about 4% of regional GDP), with shipping and the Strait of Hormuz disruption now feeding into energy, food and trade costs. Oil Market Watch: Oil prices slipped as supply-disruption fears eased, but the broader risk remains as routes stay constrained and diesel/jet fuel pressures linger. Global Rates & Growth Risk: Reuters warns the energy shock plus higher borrowing costs is raising the odds of stagflation, with G7 10-year yields at the highest since 2008. South Asia Growth Signals: Moody’s lifted India’s FY growth forecast to 7% on resilience, while flagging energy and food-price risks; ADB’s Albert Park urged tariff cuts on intermediate inputs to boost competitiveness. Urban Cost-of-Living Reality: Greater Accra’s inflation drop doesn’t mean prices are back to normal—utilities and food costs are still reshaping household budgets. Africa Trade & Tourism: IATA argues aviation is key infrastructure for an Africa-to-Africa tourism economy, while UNDP pushes Indonesia’s seaweed sector toward higher-value processing. Local Business Pulse: Nigeria’s naira weakened at the official market, and NASD OTC stocks slid; Georgia reported 6.9% Q2 growth, led by transport, arts and health, while construction and agriculture dragged. Infrastructure & Jobs: South Africa’s growth push leans on infrastructure and private participation; Charleston airport study pegs $13.8B in annual regional activity and 61,000+ jobs. Policy & Security: South Korea rejected troop support for Iran war, keeping naval missions focused on protecting commercial shipping.

Housing & Livability: A 2025 quality-of-life survey in Baguio City found residents satisfied with the economy, education and safety, but flagged housing affordability, environmental degradation and climate awareness as key gaps. Climate Shocks to Food & Transport: Heavy rain and flooding in northern Vietnam have submerged thousands of homes, blocked major routes, and damaged about 10,014 hectares of crops, with livestock losses reported—another reminder of how fast weather turns into economic disruption. Macro Outlook: Finland’s economy is forecast to grow 1.7% in 2026, led by exports and investment, even as unemployment and public debt remain pressure points. Blue Economy Innovation: Malaysia’s push for ocean thermal energy conversion, green maritime tech and wind-powered hydrogen is gaining momentum through Malaysia-Japan collaboration. Trade & Tariffs: OFAC launched “Operation Economic Outcast,” targeting Iranian-linked digital asset infrastructure, while Canada’s trade fight with the U.S. is escalating into import bans on agri-food. Elections & Cost of Living: In Quebec, candidates from five parties will debate economic plans focused on tariffs, energy, cost of living and public finances. Housing Costs: Higher mortgage rates are expected to keep downward pressure on housing prices as bond yields stay elevated. Local Economic Engines: Klamath Community College’s $80.8M economic impact underscores how workforce and education spending can translate into jobs and local growth.