AGP Executive Report

AI & Jobs: More than 200 economists and tech leaders urged governments to act now as AI could trigger an “unprecedented transformation” and large-scale job displacement. Markets & Rates: Bank of America’s survey found investor sentiment at its strongest since February, helped by AI-linked spending and hopes for a more dovish Fed. Energy & Inflation: India’s June inflation beat expectations (4.38% y/y) as renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions lift oil risk, while food inflation hit 17-month highs (5.32%) from tomato and ginger spikes. Trade & Growth: China’s exports jumped 27% y/y in June on AI-driven chip demand, while Kazakhstan reported 4.1% growth in H1 with non-oil leading. Cost of Living: Malaysia said rising prices are squeezing low-income households despite higher average income, and UK heatwaves are already costing billions in lost output. Circular Economy: India pushed textile waste upcycling via “Weave the Future 4.0,” and OECD data highlights low plastic recycling rates across South and Southeast Asia. Policy & Industry: Nigeria plans a comprehensive environmental/building regulation framework; Indonesia rolled out mandatory B50 biodiesel to cut diesel imports; and Uttar Pradesh approved startup and data centre policies to attract investment.

AI & Jobs Alarm: More than 200 economists and tech leaders, including Nobel laureates, warn AI could trigger an economic shift bigger than the Industrial Revolution but on a much faster timeline, urging governments to build research and policy capacity now. Inflation Watch (US): Ahead of June CPI, economists expect cooling price growth after easing gas costs, while “core” inflation may still rise—keeping pressure on the Fed. Monetary Policy (Canada): The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold rates at 2.25% as growth rebounds but inflation remains the key constraint. Cuba Sanctions: The US expanded sanctions targeting Cuba’s tourism and other state-linked entities, aiming to squeeze revenue as travel and fuel deliveries hit historic lows. UK Space Economy: King Charles opened a new Space and Defence Gateway at Harwell, pitching it as a bridge from research to investment and export growth. Malaysia Aged-Nation Plan: Malaysia outlined long-term social protection and healthcare financing reforms, plus a “silver economy” push to create jobs. Data Centers Debate: A study says a large data center campus in northwest Indiana could generate billions in output and thousands of jobs, while another report warns incentives often fail to deliver promised local benefits. Regional Growth (Africa): Ethiopia hosted the first Africa Pastoral Markets Forum, aiming to turn livestock markets into a trade and investment engine.

Monetary Policy Watch: New Zealand’s OCR hike to 2.5% is likely the start of a longer tightening cycle, with economists warning at least two more increases this year as the RBNZ tries to offset looser financial conditions. UK Growth Pressure: Britain’s economy is expected to stall again in May, with high energy costs tied to weak services and fresh recession worries after April’s contraction. Middle East Energy Shock: Markets are jittery as renewed US-Iran tensions raise oil and shipping risks; Pakistan’s stock index slid sharply on Strait of Hormuz fears. Public Finance Scrutiny: Liberia is set for a major revenue audit hearing, summoning finance and banking officials over how tax funds moved through accounts from 2018–2024. Jobs & Housing: Croatia’s unemployment fell 15% year-on-year in June, while Australia’s housing crunch remains worst in WA and Queensland, with interest rates still the key driver of prices. Industrial & Climate Tech: Japan’s METI-backed BESS-PV test in Thailand targets grid stability as solar surges. Development & Investment: Zambia will resume local vehicle assembly in Kafue under a new economic zone, aiming to turn infrastructure into jobs and growth.

Consumer Robotics: 1X Technologies launched NEO, a $20,000 (or $499/month) humanoid robot aimed at 2026 household deliveries, signaling consumer automation is moving from demos to paid demand. Wealth & Spending Divide: New data shows the richest 10% of Americans account for nearly half of consumer spending, reinforcing a “K-shaped” economy where many households cut back while asset-rich buyers keep demand afloat. Philippines Credit Access: SSS partnered with Standard Economics to roll out AI-enabled digital microloans, aiming for faster approvals and tighter fraud controls. Macro Outlook (Bangladesh): ADB cut Bangladesh’s GDP growth forecast to 3.7% for FY2026, citing weaker exports, sluggish investment, high energy costs, and still-elevated inflation. Central Banking & Inflation (US): Fed officials appear split under the surface, but most still expect no cuts in 2026 as inflation risks keep policy restrictive. Crypto/AML Crackdown (Thailand): Thailand’s Bank of Thailand and SEC will scrutinize large USDT transactions and require source-of-funds checks for big cash deposits to curb shadow-economy flows. Food Prices Risk: Analysts warn a “super” El Niño could keep global food prices pressured into 2028, adding to “climateflation” concerns. Business Environment (Sharjah): Sharjah’s SEDD reported 38,169 licenses issued/renewed in H1 2026, up 2%, with commercial and professional activity leading. Energy Transition: A new look at batteries argues the tech’s rapid mainstreaming is now a core driver of the clean-energy shift.

UK Economy Outlook: The UK’s May GDP is due after April’s flat/weak momentum, with economists warning services are still under pressure from fuel and energy costs tied to the Iran war. China Growth Pulse: China’s H1 data points to steady improvement, with consumption recovering and AI/humanoid-robot investment accelerating. Household Strain in the U.S.: U.S. credit card balances fell sharply, a defensive pullback that signals deeper financial stress for many households. Food Price Risk: Analysts warn a “super” El Niño could keep global food prices elevated into 2028, compounding war-driven inflation. Property Affordability Debate: Malta’s home prices rose 6.7% y/y in Q1, reigniting questions about whether growth is helping buyers or worsening affordability. AI & Policy: South Korea is expected to tighten policy as inflation stays above target, while AI governance and the creator economy face new detection-driven economics. Energy & Trade Security: India’s Navy is framed as an economic-security asset, and Iran is said to be alarmed by the India-Middle East-Europe corridor that could bypass Hormuz. Local Business Impact: Afghanistan’s Herat markets saw a sharp drop in female customers after dress-code crackdowns, hitting turnover. Development Finance: India’s finance ministry plans talks with public banks to boost foreign-currency deposits, aiming to revive inflows. Tourism Boost: South Florida businesses report gains from FIFA fever, with large crowds lifting sales.

Venezuela Quake Fallout: Twin earthquakes near Caracas are already estimated to have caused about $37B in direct damage, with jobs and trade disrupted as uncertainty deepens in the quake zone. Iraq–US Economic Pivot: Iraqi PM Zaidi is pushing to shift ties with Washington from security to investment, floating an energy and development fund idea aimed at scaling trade and private-sector links. OECD on New Zealand Jobs: The OECD says New Zealand’s employment is holding up, but real wage recovery is lagging and regional inequality—especially for Māori—remains a risk. Bangladesh Export Outlook: HSBC expects a mild global consumer rebound to support Bangladesh’s exporters as energy prices ease and shipment predictability improves. ADB Lifts Nepal Forecast: The ADB raised Nepal’s 2026/27 growth estimate to 3.9% on stronger hydropower output, while warning 2027 remains tougher amid Middle East-driven energy and tourism risks. Sarawak Sibu Economic Zone: Malaysia’s Sarawak will launch a Sibu Economic Zone with RM1.5B to attract investment, expand services, and create higher-value jobs, with road upgrades seen as a catalyst. Auto Safety: Kia issued a recall for nearly 463,000 Telluride SUVs after reports of fires tied to a seat motor overheating risk. AI’s “Economics” Shift: Coverage highlights AI moving from bigger models to cheaper, more practical systems—turning AI into infrastructure that changes pricing, access, and research timelines. Public Finance Scrutiny (India): Maharashtra faces scrutiny after CAG findings point to off-budget borrowing and “shadow” liabilities that complicate the state’s true fiscal picture. Tourism Risk (Eastern Caribbean): The ECCB warns global uncertainty and oil volatility could weigh on tourism demand and growth.

EU Fiscal Push: The EU Council adopted five country-specific recommendations for Bulgaria, urging tighter control of net spending to end its excessive deficit, targeted temporary energy-price measures, and tougher action against the shadow economy via better tax fairness and collection. IP & Innovation: WIPO’s Global Awards 2026 went to three Chinese firms, highlighting IP-driven growth in regenerative medicine, AI-assisted diagnostics, and EV battery recycling supply chains. Budget Strain in Nepal: Nepal’s auditor-backed review says revenue shortfalls and slow capital spending have left budget implementation imbalanced, with much spending stuck in current/admin costs. Armenia Infrastructure Outlook: Fitch says the TRIPP infrastructure project could support Armenia’s long-term growth, while warning that uncertainty in the peace process and tensions with Russia remain risks. Trade Deal Momentum: India and New Zealand’s new free trade agreement is framed by PM Modi as adding “depth and dynamism,” boosting market access, investment, and talent mobility. South Africa Migration Backlash: Anti-migrant protests are rising amid unemployment and weak growth; economists warn that if foreign workers leave, labour shortages could hit key sectors and worsen the informal economy. Corporate & Consumer Pressure: PepsiCo reported North America demand weakness tied to higher gas prices, even as revenue beat expectations. Creator Economy in Nigeria: Nigeria’s influencer-driven creator economy is described as topping 250,000 active creators and pushing toward a $5B industry. World Cup Spillovers: UK World Cup quarter-finals are estimated to lift wider UK sales by nearly £500m, with local venues and hospitality seeing big demand.

Student Debt Shock (US): Wisconsin borrowers face steep payment jumps after the SAVE plan was eliminated, with one teacher’s bill rising from $250 to $733 a month—forcing cuts to discretionary spending. Circular Economy (US): The U.S. Plastics Pact updated design handbooks to help packaging be reused, recycled, or composted under EPR rules, aiming to standardize circular design across the plastics value chain. Middle East Risk (Iran/Global Trade): Iranian officials told the supreme leader the U.S. naval blockade is crippling the economy and could trigger a budget and supply crisis, as Hormuz tensions threaten shipping and prices. Tourism Revenue (US Cities): Santa Monica’s hotel-tax take fell to $54.4M in 2025 (down 13.2% from 2024) even as room supply rose, highlighting how occupancy and visitor mix drive local budgets. AI Economics (China/US): China’s AI usage is reportedly exploding to 140T tokens per day, pushing a shift toward token-based pricing; meanwhile the Fed is forming AI impact task forces. Policy & Growth (Global): Kenya’s growth outlook is revised to 4.3% for 2026 as energy costs and uncertainty bite, while Tanzania starts FYDP IV targeting a $1T economy by 2050. Local Development (US): Maryland awarded $5M in heritage grants to spur tourism-linked jobs and taxes; South Whitehall faces data-center expansion pushback amid big infrastructure plans.

AI & Monetary Policy: The Fed named Marc Andreessen to co-lead a new task force on how AI could reshape productivity, jobs, and monetary policy, as officials weigh uncertainty around AI’s payoff timing. Middle East Shock to Growth: The ADB cut developing Asia-Pacific growth to 4.9% for 2026 and warned energy-market disruptions from the Iran conflict are keeping inflation elevated. Food & Inflation Risk: S&P says a weak southwest monsoon could hit India’s rural incomes, lift food inflation, and pressure government finances. Trade & Logistics: Malaysia and Thailand opened a new road link to speed cross-border clearance and support a special economic border zone. Free-Zone Incentives: Azerbaijan approved 15-year export-linked customs duty exemptions for goods made in the Alat Free Economic Zone. Corporate Demand Pressure: PepsiCo reported flat snack volumes and weaker beverage demand in North America as consumers tightened budgets amid higher gas prices. South Africa Migration Backlash: Economists warn anti-migrant protests could hurt labor markets and informal business activity as foreign workers leave. Digital Finance Push: Philippines’ SSS signed with Standard Economics to expand its digital microloan program. Aviation & Consumer Services: Emirates will add A380 service on Dubai–Delhi and expand Premium Economy across six Indian cities.

IMF Outlook: Malaysia is projected to grow 4.7% in 2026, helped by data-center demand and a global tech upturn, while the IMF flags war-related crosscurrents and uneven country exposure. Global Risks: The IMF also warns the world economy is slowing to 3.0% growth in 2026, with West Asia conflict risks and AI-driven momentum pulling in opposite directions. Defense & Innovation: North Carolina launched the NC ALIGN advisory council to connect defense research, advanced manufacturing, and tech commercialization for long-run jobs and competitiveness. Monetary Policy Pressure: The Philippines faces calls for faster rate hikes as inflation risks worsen, with economists forecasting up to 175 basis points of tightening in 2026. Energy, Jobs, and Data Centers: Michigan’s West Michigan manufacturing PMI hit its best month in five years, while Wisconsin regulators face scrutiny over methane plants tied to Big Tech data-center power. Local Economic Boosters: Riverside earned international AEDO accreditation for economic development, and College Park, Georgia awarded a $2.4M destination marketing contract to drive hospitality growth. Tourism & Community: Gwanda hosted a heritage festival aimed at cultural tourism and local enterprise, while Macau’s science carnival used vouchers to route visitors to small businesses.

Global Growth & Risk Watch: The IMF cut its global growth outlook to about 3% amid Iran-war uncertainty, while still flagging AI as a partial cushion; it also trimmed India’s 2026 forecast to 6.4% but lifted 2027, upgraded Korea to 2.6% on semiconductor and AI hardware strength, and lowered Türkiye to 2.9% for 2026. AI Economy Concerns: A confidential U.S. Treasury analysis warns the AI boom could “bleed” into slower growth if productivity gains disappoint, given tight links across chips, data centers, cloud, and power. Trade & Prices: A New York Fed survey suggests Trump-era tariffs may keep pushing consumer prices higher for longer, with “trickle up” pricing plans by firms. Regional Outlooks: ADB kept Vietnam as Southeast Asia’s fastest grower (7.2% in 2026) and projected Bangladesh at 4.5% for FY27, while South Africa’s PayInc index fell 0.9% in June. Policy & Business Moves: Malaysia’s SME group points to data-center investment and liquidity support as keeping growth robust; Ghana is pushing a maritime jobs push and a $700m petrochemical MoU under its 24-hour economy plan; China’s central bank pledged moderately loose policy but flagged “structural divergence” as demand stays weak. Local Economy Signals: Kenya’s protests are estimated to cost Sh40–50bn each time activity halts; Australia’s Telstra outage shows how telecom networks underpin payments and transport. Circular & Digital Push: Vietnam expands OCOP and collective-economy goals with digital transformation, while Baguio (Philippines) is embedding circular-economy lessons in schools via a UNDP-backed handbook.

ACA Premium Pressure: Insurers on US ACA marketplaces are seeking another median 14% jump for 2027, on top of steep 2026 increases, as medical costs keep rising. Global Growth Watch: The IMF held a cautious line—world growth at 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027—while warning Iran-linked energy and geopolitical risks could worsen inflation and financial conditions. Oil Shock Returns: Trump’s comments about the Iran ceasefire “over” helped push Brent up about 4% while stocks slid, reviving worries about renewed volatility. AI Meets Policy: From Maryland’s $1.23M workforce upskilling grants to Nepal’s push for private-sector-friendly reforms, governments are betting on skills and modernization to keep growth moving. Trade & Investment Moves: Jordan and Oman launched a $100m joint investment company, while Jordan-Azerbaijan talks added visa waivers and an energy MoU. Circular Economy Debate: Philippines’ Subic Bay defended e-waste imports as “urban mining,” amid claims of possible Basel Convention violations. Local Economic Signals: Iowa’s biggest employers report a positive outlook, and Western Cape horse exports are adding jobs and GDP.

Oil & Markets: Renewed US-Iran strikes and tanker attacks pushed Brent above $76, lifting crude ~3% and rattling global equities, with India’s Sensex/Nifty and oil/aviation stocks hit as investors price higher energy risk. Geopolitics & Trade: NATO leaders met in Ankara as the US ceasefire with Iran teeters, raising uncertainty for late-2026 stability and energy flows. Pakistan Economy: S&P Global Ratings praised Pakistan’s 2026-27 reforms, citing lower inflation, stronger FX reserves, improved fiscal discipline, and rising investor confidence. Central Banking: New Zealand’s RBNZ raised the OCR 25 bps to 2.5% over lingering Middle East-linked inflation; economists remain split on whether more hikes are needed. Nigeria Finance & Energy: Nigerian banks’ assets hit N180.37tn (41.8% of GDP) and the NGX rally added N1.86tn as investors bought large caps; meanwhile, Nigeria’s oil sector moves to rehabilitate refineries and streamline hundreds of taxes/levies. Digital & IP: UAE joined the Locarno industrial design pact to strengthen IP protection; Cyprus’ Cyta is expanding data-centre capacity via a new acquisition. Business & Policy Deals: Türkiye and Canada launched formal free-trade talks; Ghana pushed its 24-Hour Economy agenda at a Canada investment forum. Housing Watch: Australia’s housing slowdown is spreading unevenly across states, with economists warning the broader economy may cool, but likely not sharply. Demographics: UNFPA says economic constraints—not rejection of family life or feminism—are driving declining fertility.

Monetary Policy: Nepal’s central bank unveiled a “flexible” stance for 2026/27 aimed at hitting the government’s 7% growth target, with inflation projected near 5.5% and plans to expand lending by Rs 652 billion. Cashless Reality Check: Bangladesh’s digital payments keep growing, but cash still dominates day-to-day transactions—QR and wallets are often used mainly to withdraw money, leaving the cashless transition stuck on incentives and costs. Housing & Demographics: Philippines data show registered marriages down 13.5% over a decade as more couples cohabit; the share of women cohabiting rose to 20.5% in 2025. Tourism-Led Risk: UN reporting says Curaçao’s recovery is strong but increasingly tourism-dependent, with calls to invest in renewables, water security, marine protection and digital infrastructure. Regional Trade: Jordan and the UK reviewed progress under their partnership council, citing a sharp jump in Jordanian exports to the UK. Business Impact: Missouri’s state parks generated about $1.5B in sales and nearly 12,000 jobs, while a new study links U.S. corn production to $142B in total economic output. Consumer Pressure: New Zealanders are escalating utility disputes as bills bite, with complaints up sharply and most resolved quickly. Healthcare Costs & Access: A direct-to-employer GLP-1 purchasing model is reshaping how prescriptions move—cutting insurer steps but tying discounts to employer coverage.

Sanctions & Crypto as Warfare: The US is stepping up sanctions on Iran’s digital financial infrastructure, underscoring how Bitcoin and other crypto tools are getting pulled into geopolitical conflict. Digital Economy & AI Governance: Saudi Arabia is pushing AI and digital-economy cooperation in Geneva, while Qatar touts near-top global digital connectivity scores. Healthcare Ops Meets Consumer Tech: Hospitals are hitting an “autonomy paradox” as patient self-scheduling expands into emergency and high-acuity care. Markets & Energy: Oil prices tick down on softer demand expectations, while Wall Street steadies after a higher close but futures wobble ahead of earnings; gold and silver also slip. Asia Growth Signals: The World Bank says China’s growth remains resilient, and the yuan holds steady as investors await Fed minutes and China data. Nepal Macro & Property: Nepal Rastra Bank reports real estate transaction growth and outlines monetary policy steps, with growth expected to stay modest. Regional Investment Push: Bahrain’s EDB begins a UK visit to deepen trade and investment ties. Tech & Chips: Samsung’s AI-driven memory boom sends profits soaring, reshaping the silicon outlook. Fraud & Financial Literacy: Ghana warns that cracking down on digital fraud must go hand-in-hand with stronger financial literacy and basic cybersecurity.

UAE Diversification Push: ADNEC Group says it delivered record 2025 results, generating AED 9.2bn in economic impact and 2.17m hotel room nights, reinforcing Abu Dhabi’s tourism-and-events engine. Monetary Policy Watch: Australia’s inflation fight is back in focus after an economist called the RBA’s rate cuts a “mistake,” while New Zealand’s OCR decision has banks split on hike vs hold. Labor Market Reality Check: A jobs-data debate is growing as analysts argue unemployment improvements may be masking weaker labor force participation. AI Management Gap: A new analysis frames the “AI adoption gap” as a management problem—workplaces that redesign processes adopt faster than those that just hand out tools. Middle East Shock Spillovers: A business survey in Yorkshire & the Humber links cost pressures and weaker export performance to Hormuz-related energy spikes and Middle East uncertainty. Argentina Debt Strategy: Economy Minister Luis Caputo says Argentina has enough funds for 2026 payments, targets investment-grade by 2031, and keeps market refinancing as an option. Climate Cost to Industry: EU heat waves are being blamed for lost productivity and industrial slowdowns, adding to the bloc’s economic strain. South Africa SEZ Results: A World Bank study finds Special Economic Zones are working so far, citing R14.8bn revenue and 30,000+ jobs.