AGP Executive Report

Philippines Upgrade: The World Bank says the Philippines has reached upper-middle-income status, with President Marcos Jr. calling it proof of recent economic reforms and steady growth. U.S. Labor Market: Hiring cooled in June as the U.S. added just 57,000 jobs and unemployment slipped to 4.2%, feeding fresh debate over where the Fed goes next. Germany Reform Push: Germany’s coalition agreed on sweeping tax, labor, and pension changes aimed at boosting growth, including higher retirement age and easing some corporate burdens. India-Japan Economic Security: Modi and Japan’s Takaichi unveiled a 16-point roadmap covering economic security, AI, energy resilience, and critical technologies. Crypto Policy: India’s RBI told a parliamentary panel that virtual digital assets like crypto are a threat to an emerging economy and should not be legalized now. Canada Infrastructure & Trade: Canada announced air-safety upgrades at Whitehorse airport, while a new Canada–B.C. cooperative prosperity deal targets energy and trade corridors. Nigeria Blue Economy: Nigeria’s marine and blue economy minister urged faster implementation with sub-national governments to turn policy into measurable jobs and investment. Regional Development: Kentucky state parks reported $1.1B in 2024 economic impact and 8,600 jobs; Great Falls, Montana, pitched a local “boom” tied to downtown and industry momentum. EU-Armenia Support: EU chief von der Leyen promised €18M aid and tariff-free access on most farm exports as Armenia faces Russian economic pressure.

World Bank Upgrades Philippines: The Philippines has been reclassified as an upper-middle-income economy after GNI per capita hit about $4,850, with President Marcos calling it proof of policy effectiveness and a boost for investment and jobs. EU–Türkiye Trade Push: EU Economy Commissioner Dombrovskis says closer ties can strengthen economic security and value-chain integration, with plans to modernize the customs union and expand cooperation in procurement and services. AI Financial-Stability Warnings: Economists and central bankers at the ECB symposium in Portugal warn AI spending could raise leverage and debt, increasing systemic risk and job disruption. Sri Lanka Recovery Milestone, Inflation Watch: Sri Lanka regained upper-middle-income status after 2025 growth of 5%, but Bloomberg Economics expects inflation to keep rising toward ~7% in late 2026 before easing. Korea Fiscal/Skills Agenda: OECD says Korea must shore up fiscal institutions and invest in education and lifelong learning to manage ageing pressures and regional economic gaps. Nigeria Governance/Impersonation Alert: Nigeria’s Presidency warns of a fake “Presidential Economic Advisory Council” scheme tied to forged appointment letters and visa requests. Regional Growth & Trade Deals: Indonesia signals more investment-led downstreaming with Australia; Sharjah and Ethiopia discuss reciprocal trade missions; Georgia and Uzbekistan plan a roadmap to deepen trade, transport, logistics, and investment. Local Economy Signals: Spokane Hoopfest estimates ~$47M impact; Odisha approved a ₹2,295 crore deep-sea fishing/blue economy mission; Hollywoodbets Durban July targets nearly R1B for eThekwini. Digital Fraud Risk: A Shufti report finds identity fraud signals are highest in Asia-Pacific’s most digitally advanced economies, driven by higher remote onboarding volumes.

U.S. Labor Market: Job openings stayed strong at 7.6 million in May, even as layoffs rose and hiring dipped—signaling resilience, not a boom. Consumer Mood: The Conference Board’s confidence index ticked up in June as gas prices fell, but the outlook remains historically weak after the Iran-driven inflation shock. Central Banking Data Push: Fed chair Kevin Warsh urged faster, better real-time economic data, criticizing reliance on lagging government measures. Nigeria Development Push: The World Bank approved a $1.25bn package to back reforms in power, broadband, agriculture, trade and revenue, aiming to spur jobs and private investment. Nigeria Reform Narrative: Finance minister Taiwo Oyedele said reforms have averted collapse and now the focus is accelerating inclusive growth. South Africa Manufacturing Pressure: Absa’s PMI showed June manufacturing slipping into contraction, with Middle East tensions and price pressures weighing on demand. Jordan Industrial Growth: Jordan’s industrial sector grew 4.8% in Q1 2026, led by manufacturing and mining. Tech & AI Policy: North Carolina launched an AI Strategic Roadmap to protect residents, prepare workers, and reshape government services. Local Economic Strategy: Baltimore County released recommendations to reorganize how it retains and markets to employers to expand jobs and the tax base.

Monetary Policy & Inflation: Eurozone inflation cooled in Germany, France and Italy, lifting hopes the ECB can hold rates as energy pressures ease. Central Banking: Nepal’s deputy governor said the next monetary policy must balance growth with stability while managing market expectations. Consumer Sentiment: U.S. consumer confidence ticked up in June, but Americans still feel pessimistic. AI & Productivity: Multiple reports argue AI is reshaping where economic activity happens and can boost jobs in firms that spend most on AI, while warnings persist about an “AI bubble” and inflation risks. Broadband & Growth: Nigeria’s telecom regulator urged faster fibre rollout, citing low FTTH penetration and right-of-way bottlenecks. Energy & Climate Costs: Ukraine’s war-related environmental damage tops 7 trillion hryvnias; Europe’s heatwaves are driving a cooling demand surge. Debt & Credit Access: Greece’s long-running non-performing loan backlog keeps many households and small firms shut out of new credit. Regional Development: Tanzania reported record dividends from state-linked firms; Cuba created a new institute to restructure state enterprises; Latvia and Estonia plan business talks to deepen strategic cooperation. Local Economy: Greece’s credit crunch, Greece’s stalled recovery, plus Kansas City Chiefs’ Kansas move projects billions in regional impact.

Canada GDP Rebound: Canada’s real GDP rose 0.5% in April after a 0.1% contraction in March, led by mining and oil/gas, easing recession talk though many economists still expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates. US Consumer Mood: The Conference Board’s consumer confidence inched up to 91.2 in June as gas prices fell, but sentiment remains well below last year amid lingering pessimism. Europe & AI Productivity: OpenAI’s chief economist says Europe is positioned to use AI to lift productivity and reshape work, with only a minority of jobs facing imminent disruption. Trade & Supply Chains: Mercosur launched economic partnership talks with Japan, aiming to expand market access and investment as countries diversify away from tariff risk. Geopolitics’ Economic Scars: UNCTAD warns that even after Strait of Hormuz reopening, freight and food-price pressures will linger for vulnerable economies. Competition Watch: Czech regulators fined nearly CZK 500m in 2025, including a major rail cartel case, while public procurement disputes stayed high. Energy Transition: British Columbia hit major milestones in low-carbon fuels, with sustainable aviation fuel reaching 3.9% of jet supply ahead of schedule. Regional Tensions: Manipur’s Kuki-Zo protests escalated over an “economic blockade,” with tear gas used to stop marches near a buffer zone.

Eurozone Resilience: ECB chief Christine Lagarde said Europe is better able to absorb more frequent geopolitical shocks, citing stronger banking rules, fiscal frameworks and progress on the green transition. UK Growth Update: Britain’s economy grew 0.6% in Q1, with services leading, but 2025 growth was revised slightly lower—raising pressure on policymakers as uncertainty lingers. Turkey Inflation Watch: A survey of economists expects June annual inflation to ease to 32.17% (from 32.61% in May), ahead of the official release on July 3. Sri Lanka Fuel Relief: Sri Lanka cut diesel and petrol prices as global oil eased, but the country still faces a heavy import-bill burden and currency pressure. South Africa Jobs & Migration: A proposed employment bill would tighten hiring of foreign workers and fine employers for non-compliance, with major knock-on risks for sectors relying on immigrant labor. China Momentum: China’s June factory and services activity beat expectations, hinting at a rebound that may arrive late. Trade & Supply Chains: Oxford Economics says the Philippines has captured virtually none of “China+1” manufacturing diversification, while Vietnam and parts of India gain. Policy Ahead of July 1 (Nigeria): Nigeria Customs stepped up sensitisation for the Green Tax Surcharge to push cleaner vehicle imports. Local Economy Boosts: Uganda’s tourism leaders pitched a push to close infrastructure gaps and drive repeat visitation after the UG Catalyst Summit.

Creative Economy Push (Malaysia): MyCreative Ventures says it will help turn creative talent into commercial businesses by backing IP development, commercialization and market access under Malaysia’s Orange Economy agenda. Corporate Expansion (US): Lexicon, Inc. and Arkansas officials marked the completion of a renovated headquarters tied to a broader $37.6m Port of Little Rock expansion. UK Economic Politics (Burnham): Andy Burnham’s “good growth in every postcode” pitch centers on deeper devolution and a “circuit-breaker” style plan to move power and policy away from London/Whitehall. Inflation Data (US): BEA methodology changes could lower May core PCE inflation estimates later this year, with revisions going back to 2021. AI Risk Warning (BIS): The BIS says AI investment is propping growth now, but over-commitment and uncertain returns could trigger the next major downturn. Global Trade & Customs (Morocco–China): Customs deals aim to speed exports/imports, recognize AEO programs and improve fraud controls. Debt Relief (Sudan–China): China cancels $50m of Sudan’s interest-free loans as the conflict-driven economic collapse deepens. Local Business Relief (Sharjah): Sharjah Police rolls out fee cuts and exemptions for firms for three months, including reduced security-permit and training fees. Consumer Cooling (Spain): Retail growth in 2026 is forecast to slow to 1.4% as higher rates and uncertainty weigh on spending. Digital Economy (Malaysia): Anwar launches the MD2030 plan to build an inclusive AI, automation and data-driven economy by 2030.

UK Politics & Rates: Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill warned against “complacency” on inflation after voting for rate hikes, stressing CPI still runs above target and policy may not have been restrictive enough. UK Devolution & Growth Plan: Labour frontrunner Andy Burnham is set to unveil his economic agenda, with a big push for faster devolution and a “No 10 in the North” style shift of power from Whitehall. Inflation & Markets: BIS flagged global “pressure points” from sovereign debt and the risk of inflation re-anchoring, while Wall Street optimism lifted RBC’s S&P 500 forecast to 8,150. Energy & Commodities: Oil jumped on Strait of Hormuz supply fears, then eased as concerns cooled; gold and silver slipped on weaker global cues. Tourism Economics: Dublin Airport expansion is criticized for driving up rents and house prices, while Nepal’s tourism boom is outpacing government readiness. MSME Focus: Myanmar marked World MSME Day with leaders calling MSMEs the jobs engine; Pakistan’s survey shows support for a 5% tax on influencer income. Regional Development: South Korea plans up to 20 trillion won for southwest chip investment; Portugal issued its first offshore aquaculture permit, signaling a push for a tech-led Blue Economy. Risk & Resilience: Venezuela’s quake losses are projected to top $10bn, with much damage uninsured.

Philippines Outlook: Capital Economics says growth will stay sluggish, forecasting GDP at 3% in 2026 and below the government’s targets through 2028, citing weak confidence, tight fiscal policy, and lingering shock effects. Global Macro: The BIS flags “pressure points” for the world economy—Middle East-driven inflation risks, supply shocks, and worries that AI investment spending could cool abruptly—urging policy discipline. AI & Business: Nigeria’s power sector is turning to AI for predictive maintenance to cut outages and costs, while a separate analysis warns the “verification economy” is emerging as trust and oversight become new bottlenecks. Infrastructure & Trade: India’s Chennai–Bengaluru expressway nears completion, promising major travel-time cuts; Egypt is in talks with Norway’s Scatec on a potential $5bn expansion in renewables, desalination, and clean-energy data centers. Policy & Costs: South Africa’s Reserve Bank gets a key inflation-expectations survey ahead of the next rate decision, and New Zealand moves toward mandatory building warranties/insurance—while debating market capacity.

Digital Economy Outreach: Malaysia’s communications ministry will push NADI teams into communities to train people to earn via the digital economy, including becoming TikTok affiliates and selling online. Learning & Skills: Sunway University’s economics lecturer created “US Econopoly,” a Monopoly-style board game using real US-style market mechanics to teach micro, macro and financial literacy. World Cup Demand Boost: Malaysia’s World Cup could add RM1.2bn–RM2.1bn to food and beverage via match-day “mini-consumption festivals,” with gains concentrated in F&B, retail and media. Markets & FX: FIIs are returning to India as the rupee strengthens to about 94.40/$ and selling eases after weeks of volatility elsewhere in Asia. Tax Tech Upgrade: As GST turns 10, India is shifting to AI-led compliance, faster refunds and simpler processes for MSMEs. IMF Support: The IMF approved $350m for DR Congo to back reforms, climate resilience, infrastructure and social protection. Inflation Watch: Iran’s inflation jumped to 88.6% y/y, driven by war-linked food price spikes. Regional Growth Risk: Westpac says Australia’s growth is stabilising at a weak pace with a downside risk of contraction in Q2. Gender Budget Reality Check: Bangladesh’s gender-responsive budget expands sharply, but women’s economic participation still lags due to implementation gaps and structural barriers. Business Climate: Nigeria’s Delta State unveiled reforms to speed land administration, investment promotion and dispute resolution to attract investors.

Green Tech Push: Sarawak is shifting to a low-carbon, tech-led model under PCDS 2030, valuing forests as carbon sinks, using AI for public services, and aiming to build a regional green-energy hub. MSME Drive: Nigeria’s Tinubu approved free corporate registration for 250,000 MSMEs to cut bureaucracy and help grassroots firms integrate into the formal economy, while Nigeria’s MSME Awards spotlight policy support for small businesses. AI Meets Inflation: IMF’s Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warns AI-driven demand can lift prices, and a separate report links higher consumer tech costs to soaring memory chip prices tied to data-center buildouts. Trade Tensions: Trump threatens 100% tariffs on countries that introduce digital services taxes targeting US tech firms, raising new uncertainty for cross-border digital trade. Earthquake Shock: UNDP estimates Venezuela’s quakes caused about $6.7B in direct damage (~6% of GDP), with knock-on hits to productivity, jobs, and confidence. Energy & Budgets: Hawaiʻi’s governor signed a supplemental budget prioritizing affordable housing, public health, and economic growth amid federal funding uncertainty. Local Growth & Jobs: Odisha launched a Women Entrepreneurship Platform to boost women-led enterprises and competitiveness as Cambodia urges SMEs to prepare for LDC graduation and tougher global standards.

Export Push (Sri Lanka): President Anura Dissanayake wants Sri Lanka to become an export-oriented manufacturing economy, targeting a combined US$3B in coconut and food-and-beverage exports in two years, with incentives for value-added production. CFO Caution (Netherlands): Deloitte finds Dutch CFOs less optimistic amid uncertainty: 52% are more pessimistic, energy costs are squeezing margins, and risk appetite has tightened. Growth Outlook (India): EY expects India’s FY27 growth at 6.6%–6.8%, with inflation around 4.5%, helped by easing global energy pressures if oil routes normalize. Trade/Geopolitics (China): Reuters reports China’s industrial profits rose 21.1% in May but growth is uneven, with property drag and structural imbalances still weighing on demand. Local Economy & Jobs (US): Memphis mayor announces COO/CFO replacements as the city faces budget strain; Wisconsin highlights housing affordability pressures tied to regulations, tariffs, and energy costs. Inflation Watch (Haiti): Haiti’s monthly inflation jumped to 3.4% in April, driven mainly by transport and fuel-linked costs. Policy & Infrastructure (Nigeria): Tinubu defends infrastructure spending as the “backbone” of growth while inaugurating roads in Abuja’s Mabushi district. Tourism Boost (Tasmania): Dark Mofo’s winter run drew 550,000+ attendances and a record $5.18M box office, lifting the visitor economy.

Low-Altitude Economy Push (Malaysia): MIGHT showcased a “Low Altitude Economy Mini Sandbox” to test drones, unmanned traffic management and advanced air mobility, aiming to add RM50.7B to GDP and 100,000 high-value jobs by 2030. Canada Growth Watch: Economists cut Canada’s 2026 growth outlook after trade-agreement uncertainty dampened business optimism and investment plans. China Fiscal Strain Hits Bureaucracy: Beijing is downgrading local government offices amid debt and revenue pressure, signaling tighter spending and a reshaping of administration. Ukraine Digital Infrastructure: Kyivstar and VEON signed an MoU with Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy to explore a sovereign, AI-ready data center to speed AI adoption and attract investment. IMF Dollar-Centered View: IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the world remains firmly “dollar-centered” despite tariff shifts. Curaçao Fiscal Turnaround: Central bank data show debt falling and a current budget surplus in 2025, driven mainly by tourism-led revenue gains. Local Economic Development (US): Sun Prairie launched a digital economic development hub to help businesses find sites and resources quickly. Food Security Strategy (Canada): Canada unveiled a National Food Security Strategy backed by $3B over 10 years to boost productivity and competition.

India Macro: ICRA says India’s economic activity growth hit a 3-month high in May (8.7% YoY), but core output stayed tepid and unemployment rose. UK Business Policy: Andy Haldane urged a “bolder” UK reset, including redirecting pension tax relief toward UK firms and extending how long policy impacts are assessed. Trade & Deals: India and the UK pushed ahead on the India-UK CETA, while Japan plans talks on an EPA with Mercosur. Energy & Inflation: Standard Chartered flags Vietnam’s growth normalizing, with a widening trade deficit and inflation risks keeping rates steady. Defense Industrial Base: Lockheed won a major THAAD interceptor production contract as Trump accelerates weapons output and stockpiles. Local Economy & Jobs: Kolkata’s warehouse collapse killed 11, spotlighting unsafe, informal warehousing. Africa Policy: Nigeria’s reforms face calls for measurable outcomes, and Sanusi warned ECOWAS not to rush the ECO currency without convergence and credible institutions. Tech/Industry: China’s Xiong’an is marketed as an AI-and-low-altitude innovation hub, while Japan outlined huge investment plans across strategic sectors.

US Growth & Inflation Watch: The IMF said the Fed’s rate hold was appropriate as US inflation stays above target, while Commerce reported US GDP grew at a solid 2.1% pace in Q1, with AI-linked investment rising but consumer spending weakening. Global Rates & Currencies: Bank of Canada officials are expected to keep rates steady, but the loonie is pressured by a strong US dollar and an AI-driven US investment pull. Philippines Setback: S&P cut its 2026 growth forecast for the Philippines to 4.1%, blaming stalled infrastructure and Middle East-driven energy shocks. Cuba Economic Overhaul: Cuba rushed sweeping market reforms, easing price controls, expanding private activity, and opening parts of finance and foreign trade. Curaçao Policy Focus: Curaçao’s central bank warned healthcare financing is a major long-term risk and urged less red tape plus faster structural reforms to sustain growth. Zambia Macro Update: Zambia reported inflation easing to 6.5% (lowest since early 2018) alongside 7.7% Q1 GDP growth. AI & Jobs Debate: Anthropic hired Stanford economist Chad Jones to study AI’s economic future, including existential risk scenarios. Infrastructure Spending Drag (Philippines): Malacañang said cautious fund releases tied to past flood-control scandal slowed infrastructure spending, with a push to accelerate in H2. Regional Trade Push: SACU leaders reaffirmed the bloc as a development and industrialisation platform, with trade facilitation and logistics in focus.

Infrastructure & Growth: India’s PM Modi used the PRAGATI platform to review Rs 30,000 crore in road, power, industrial corridor and metro projects, stressing PM GatiShakti for faster delivery. Energy Markets: Pacific finance ministers said the Iran-U.S. deal is only a “negotiate an agreement” step, so small island states are bracing for fuel-price volatility. Sanctions & Trade: Bosnia’s “grey list” risk is expected to mean tighter controls, slower payments and higher costs—hurting exporters reliant on the EU. Markets: Nigeria’s NGX slid 2.35% as profit-taking hit bellwethers like BUA Cement and Dangote Cement, while a few insurers gained. Policy Debate: South Africa’s proposed Maternal Support Grant sparked concern it could incentivize poor women to get pregnant for the monthly payment. AI & Industry: South Korea and the U.S. discussed AI supply-chain cooperation and a deeper strategic economic partnership, including shipbuilding. Local Economy: Cyprus’ economic sentiment inched up in June, helped by retail and construction, while services weakened. Digital Push: Bhutan reported digital transformation gains, including jobs and a national digital identity system.