AGP Executive Report

Malaysia Budget 2027: Malaysia’s finance ministry says the 2027 budget will target cost-of-living relief, stronger social protection, and higher-value investment, with focus areas ranging from MSMEs and digital skills to semiconductors, AI, energy transition, logistics, and healthcare. Qatar Economic Forum: QNB Group will sponsor the Qatar Economic Forum alongside UNGA’s special edition, aiming to deepen cross-border trade and investment links with global business leaders. SCO Digital Economy: Urumqi will host the 2026 SCO Digital Economy Forum in September, with ministers expected to set a 2026-2027 cooperation agenda on digital connectivity, trade, industry applications, and data governance. UAE-Iran risk: The UAE suspended trade and commercial ties with Iran after a fresh missile alert, raising new near-term economic and business uncertainty. Albania clamps down on e-commerce: Albania’s tax office launched a sector plan to register online sellers properly, improve VAT and invoicing compliance, and curb the informal economy. Vietnam land rules for growth: Vietnam proposes letting land be acquired and construction start before compensation is finalized to speed housing and infrastructure projects. Macau diversification push: Macau unveiled a five-year plan to cut reliance on casino revenue by boosting non-gaming industries toward 60% of GDP by 2030, including digital currency and payments upgrades. Nigeria shipping boost: The US Coast Guard lifted Nigeria’s 12-year Condition of Entry on vessels, a win for maritime competitiveness. India rupee stance: Sanjeev Sanyal urged India not to defend the rupee, arguing inflation control should stay the priority. Turkey roadmap: Turkey is drafting a 2027-2029 medium-term program and a 2027 budget aligned to targets for inflation, growth, jobs, and fiscal discipline.

Judiciary Overhaul in Kuwait: Kuwait’s Cabinet approved draft decree-laws to modernize the judiciary, create economic courts to speed up dispute resolution, and expand electronic procedures—aiming to keep due process while improving efficiency. Wildfire Relief Economics: In northeastern Minnesota, United Way of Northeastern Minnesota has reinvested nearly $300,000 in wildfire donations to help households and small businesses cover bills and payroll-linked costs. Circular Economy Push in Malaysia: Malaysia plans to learn from Japan’s waste separation at source, with a proposed MoU to share recycling know-how and accelerate its circular economy transition. Middle East Trade & Sanctions Pressure: Iran’s economists are urging a broader, more coordinated economic partnership with Iraq focused on production, investment, and jobs; meanwhile, the U.S. says it won’t hold talks with Iran and will lean on economic pressure. Bolivia Political Risk for Reforms: Bolivia’s Congress voted to censure Economy Minister Jose Gabriel Espinoza, raising the odds of his removal as an IMF-backed stabilization plan awaits approvals. Commercial Real Estate Signal: The U.S. National Association of Realtors launched a Commercial Real Estate Demand Index to track local job and migration drivers across 306 metros. Climate Hit to Europe’s Economy: A drought and heat wave across Europe is already disrupting output and is expected to feed inflation and higher costs. Nigeria Ports Regulation: Nigeria’s ports economic regulator, NPERA, has started operations to reduce regulatory uncertainty and improve cargo movement.

FX & Rates: The dollar slid and gold rose as weaker U.S. data cooled expectations for more Fed hikes, with traders pointing to softer retail sales and a less tight rate path. Malaysia Budget 2027 & SMEs: Prime Minister Anwar stressed political stability as key to investor confidence, while economists expect Budget 2027 to add SME support as costs and supply-chain risks bite in 2027. Malaysia Growth Watch: Malaysia’s H1 2026 GDP growth came in at 5.7%, beating Bank Negara’s 4–5% forecast, with stable ringgit and improved credit outlook cited. Malaysia Finance Scrutiny: Economists warned that a Royal Commission finding on Tabung Haji’s property valuations—heavily based on management estimates—could distort the institution’s financial picture. China Demand Signals: China’s July industrial production and retail sales disappointed, with fixed-asset investment and real estate weakening, adding pressure for more policy support. India Outlook: Ind-Ra projected India’s FY27 growth slowing to 6.8% amid West Asia-driven fuel/food inflation risks and El Niño impacts. Global Trade & Logistics: Aqaba’s port transit traffic surged in 2026, forcing new logistics capacity as the route strengthens for goods heading toward Iraq. Humanitarian Funding: UN data shows humanitarian funding to Jordan has fallen about 92% since 2016, leaving its Syrian refugee plan barely funded. Digital Economy Push: Malaysia’s digital economy target is 30% of GDP by 2030, with Budget 2027 support aimed at lowering AI costs for SMEs.

Consumer Pressure in the U.S.: New survey data shows Americans tightening budgets—more men buying private label, hunting coupons, and cooking at home as dining out drops. Politics Meets the Economy: University of Michigan and YouGov polling finds Republican sentiment toward Trump’s economy slipping sharply as Iran-war costs bite, raising midterm turnout worries. Malaysia Growth Upgrade: Economists lifted Malaysia’s 2026 forecast after 1H momentum (5.7% y/y), helped by AI-linked tech demand and strong exports, though they expect moderation later. Cuba Sanctions Hit Jobs: U.S. sanctions are pushing Cuba’s tourism toward zero, leaving hotels empty and workers jobless. U.S. Rates Jolt: Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped to the highest since 2007 as debt concerns and long-dated issuance spooked investors. Labor Market Chill (UK): CIPD warns the UK is stuck in a “low hire, low fire” cycle, limiting entry routes into work. Iran Inflation Crisis: Reports say food prices have surged up to 400% amid blockade and war, with inflation above 80% and unemployment rising. Trade & Infrastructure: Jordan-China trade nears $6.7B; DP World delivered new Tartous port cranes to boost Syria’s recovery. Energy Policy Tension (India): India’s chief economic adviser urges restoring an E10 option alongside E20 to ease public backlash.

Philippines Economic Mix: Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan says the Philippines is too dependent on household consumption and services, urging a shift toward investment, exports, agriculture and industry to boost productivity and resilience. Philippines Remittances: Cash remittances grew just 1.7% y/y to $3.04B in June, the slowest pace in over four years, as host-market conditions and Middle East tensions weigh on worker inflows. Malaysia Road Safety Costs: Malaysia estimates road accidents cost up to RM30B a year, with 6,537 deaths in 2025 and 80.6% linked to human factors—pushing calls for safer infrastructure plus enforcement and education. China Growth Watch: July data show retail sales at 0.6% and industrial output at 4.5%, while fixed-asset investment fell 6.7%—a broad slowdown that raises pressure for growth support. Japan Rate Hike Uncertainty: Japan’s Q2 growth came in at 0.3% q/q (1.1% annualized), complicating the BoJ’s path to higher rates as consumption stays weak. DRC Critical Minerals: A new push around critical minerals frames the DRC as a rising supplier for the energy transition, but security risks still drive budget deficits and economic fragility. Nepal Power Policy: Nepal’s energy leadership is urging modernization of the Nepal Electricity Authority and faster PPAs for private projects, with billions in investment at stake. Ghana Recovery Narrative: President Mahama credits fiscal discipline and cutting waste for “phenomenal” recovery, while emphasizing continued growth and jobs focus. South Africa Illicit Trade: A warning that illicit goods are damaging manufacturing and draining tax revenue adds urgency to enforcement and supply-chain crackdowns.

Philippines Budget Politics: Economist Cielo Magno warns the Local Government Support Fund should be allocated by clear rules set by Congress, not left to executive discretion, arguing for criteria like poverty incidence and project readiness ahead of 2028 elections. Philippines Growth vs Stagflation: The economic team pushes back on “stagflation lite,” saying growth is slowing (2.3% in Q2) but still above population growth, with “stagflation” lacking a standard definition. US Jobs & Tariff Anxiety: Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says Trump-era job slowdown may be “possibly permanent,” as employment fell in July and earlier estimates were revised down; markets also react to weaker retail spending. Fed Path: BMO expects the Fed to hold rates through 2026, with cuts only in late 2027, with Iran geopolitics clouding inflation and supply shocks. Middle East Economic Pressure: Iran’s VP Aref frames sanctions as an “economic war” meant to offset battlefield setbacks, urging unity and worst-case planning. Qatar Logistics Push: Qatar is betting on logistics to power e-commerce and regional distribution, aiming to turn energy advantage into higher-value digital services. Circular Economy in Qatar: Qatar reports thousands of abandoned end-of-life vehicles removed and valued for disposal, supporting material recovery research. Nigeria Mining Jobs: Nigeria moves to repurpose 4,000+ abandoned mine pits into energy, tourism and fishery projects, while warning artisanal miners to get proper licences. UK Policy Backlash: A campaign group argues the 2030 petrol/diesel ban will cripple the UK economy, criticizing grid and EV affordability constraints.

Utility Regulation: Washington AG Nick Brown challenges Avista’s proposed rate hike, arguing the monopolist should earn about $115M less than requested, with hearings set for late August/September. Blue Economy & Budgeting: Malaysia’s Finance Minister says Budget 2027 will keep funding targeted cash support (SARA/STR) and spotlight Sabah’s marine and aquaculture “Blue Economy” via outcome-based allocations. Smartphone Credit Rules: India’s RBI limits what lenders can do when EMI payments are missed, protecting borrowers’ phones from being locked too quickly and requiring safeguards for connectivity. India Growth Plan: Equirus says India could reach a $20T economy by 2036 with ~14.2% rupee growth and a 20-step reform agenda, with services as the main engine. Geopolitics as Economics: The US and Iran are escalating into an “economic war,” with new pressure measures raising risks for energy markets and broader blowback. Circular Economy Funding: New Mexico launches an $11.5M circular economy plan, backing reuse, recycling and recovery projects to build local supply chains.

Iran Pressure Campaign: US officials are signaling “unprecedented” economic pressure on Iran, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and allies pointing to sanctions and a naval blockade as the main levers—while critics warn any escalation could boomerang onto the US economy. Iran Economy Strain: Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian says the war has worsened prices and state finances as oil sales fall, factories are damaged, and tax revenue shrinks. US Macro Mix: US inflation cooled in July, but retail sales dropped and jobless claims rose, keeping the Fed and voters focused on affordability. Tariff Refunds Boost Growth: The Trump administration’s tariff refunds are lifting corporate profits and adding support to GDP growth, with economists citing a faster 4.3% pace. Jordan Revenue Resilience: Jordan’s domestic revenues rose to JD5.625b by end-July, helped by improved tax collection and a resilient economy. UAE Trade Expansion: The UAE says it has signed 38 CEPA deals, boosting non-oil trade and market access. Nepal Power Exports: Nepal’s energy minister says electricity trade reforms should move in parallel with regulation and investment groundwork. Namibia Merger Rules: Namibia’s competition authority plans to raise mandatory merger notification thresholds to reduce both missed competition risks and paperwork burdens. Ghana Growth Plan: President John Dramani Mahama announces a US$10bn “New Economy” investment push focused on agriculture and jobs. Victoria Toll Relief: Victoria’s opposition proposes a $50-a-week toll cap to cut costs for families and small businesses. Morocco Migration Anxiety: Despite Morocco’s growth, young people still risk crossing to Europe, driven by inequality and youth unemployment.

Policy Credibility & Investment: Malaysia’s resilience hinges on institutions that keep working professionally and on policy consistency, with investors focused on predictable rules and respected contracts even amid political change. Public Health Costs: Sri Lanka’s alcohol burden hit Rs 335bn in 2025, far above Rs 254bn in alcohol-tax revenue—an economic hit that policymakers can’t ignore. India Growth Narrative: On Independence Day, PM Modi pushed a “Fragile Five” turnaround story, while SBI Research pointed to resilience signals like 19.3% credit growth and 15.4% deposit growth, plus FCNR(B) inflows. AI Upskilling Push: Modi also announced free online coaching and AI training for 1 crore youth, aiming at cost, quality and skills. UK Jobs Risk Watch: Britain’s services sector contracted fastest since Jan 2023, raising concerns for hiring and consumer spending. Local Economy Execution: Ghana’s 24-hour economy market plans are being redesigned because some assemblies lack land, forcing smaller sites and vertical layouts. Anti-Corruption & Stability: Nigeria’s ICPC chief argued integrity reforms are now tied directly to investment climate and economic stability. Middle East Trade Shock: US plans to keep economic pressure on Iran, with Hormuz disruptions adding uncertainty for energy flows and regional growth. Egypt Reform Progress: The IMF said Egypt met most reform targets despite conflict fallout, including steps to improve state-owned enterprise transparency.

Iran Pressure Escalates: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Washington will roll out “economic isolation” measures against Iran next week, paired with an indefinite Strait of Hormuz blockade, as Trump signals “never seen” economic pressure. Retail Demand Cools: U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the biggest drop in over a year, adding to worries that affordability strains are turning into slower consumption. Wall Street Retreats: Major U.S. indexes slipped from record highs after the weak retail-spending report, with oil prices swinging amid Iran-war uncertainty. AI Adoption Gap: New U.S. Census data points to an AI divide: larger firms report higher adoption while many small businesses show little change, raising competitiveness concerns. State Budgets & Growth: Oklahoma reported FY2026 General Revenue Fund collections $612M above estimate, while the Dutch economy is projected to grow 1.4% in 2026 but faces energy and trade uncertainty. Innovation Spending: Pennsylvania’s 2026-27 budget sets aside $125M for “Innovate in PA 2.0,” aiming to expand venture capital and commercialization in robotics, life sciences, and manufacturing. Local Economic Bets: Springfield’s $1.3B data center project promises 120 jobs but faces environmental and power-generation concerns.

Malaysia Growth Update: Bank Negara Malaysia says the economy grew 6% y/y in Q2 2026, lifting first-half growth to 5.7%, led by services, manufacturing, mining and construction, with private consumption and investment both rising. Philippines Blue Economy: Manila secured €200m (about P14bn) from France’s AFD for marine ecosystem protection and blue-economy development, targeting livelihoods for 3m+ coastal workers. AI Gap Watch: Capital Economics warns the Philippines is missing out on AI-driven productivity, citing weaker electronics export momentum and low workplace AI adoption. Social Security Meets Macro: Analysts argue Social Security’s solvency hinges less on benefit tweaks and more on broader economic strength—jobs, earnings and savings. US Credit Signal: Fitch kept the US at AA+ (stable), citing resilience but flagging weaker job creation and fiscal risks. Indonesia Jobs-First Growth: Prabowo touts 5.45% first-half growth and aims for 6% for 2026, stressing growth must translate into jobs and living standards. Energy & Trade Shock: The US says it can maintain an “indefinite” naval blockade of Iran and will ramp up economic pressure, pushing oil higher. Nigeria Markets & Policy: Nigeria’s stock exchange fell 0.39% on weak sentiment, while Tinubu assented to the Ports Economic Regulatory Agency Bill to create a dedicated port regulator. Housing as Economic Policy: Rhode Island’s Quonset is adding workforce housing to tackle recruitment and retention limits from the housing shortage.

Blue Economy Funding: The Philippines secured €200M (about P14B) from France’s AFD for MEBED 1, aiming to protect marine ecosystems and create sustainable livelihoods for 3M+ coastal workers. AI Competitiveness: Capital Economics warns the Philippines is missing the AI boom, citing weaker electronics export momentum and near-bottom workplace AI readiness. Local Growth & Jobs: Wilmington, Delaware launched a Wilmington Economic Roundtable to advise Mayor John Carney on investment and business growth. Small-Business Support: Trinidad and Tobago’s Ministry of the People awarded a $10,000 one-off grant to help 10 vulnerable women-led households in La Brea build micro-enterprises. Climate Costs: A CBS report highlights how record heat disrupts businesses and productivity, hitting tourism-heavy firms hard. Infrastructure Finance: Reno-Tahoe airport plans $362M in revenue bonds to fund its MoreRNO expansion. Geopolitics & Inflation: Coverage says the U.S. is leaning on economic pressure on Iran (“low-keying it”) as sanctions and shipping constraints strain regional trade. UK Economy: Britain’s Q2 GDP rose 0.4% but growth is slowing amid unrest and Iran-war energy costs. Election Watch (Zambia): Voters weigh Hichilema’s economic recovery against persistent cost-of-living pressure ahead of results expected Aug. 17. Antitrust Risk (California): A report estimates a proposed CA antitrust expansion could cost the economy $670B and hit state revenues $9B.

UK Economy: The Office for National Statistics says UK GDP rose 0.4% in April–June, down from 0.6% in Q1, with services still driving growth as the Iran-war shock and domestic political unrest weigh on confidence. Energy & Cost Pressures: The slowdown comes alongside higher energy costs from the Middle East conflict, even as June GDP surprised on the upside with weather and the World Cup. Australia Macro: RMIT’s Chris Berg warns high interest rates are crushing growth by outpacing productivity, risking weaker jobs and a “UK-style” low-ambition future. Solar Economics: Solar4Good reports a major shift in home solar payback: many UK households could recoup costs in 7–11 years as installation prices fall and electricity prices rise. Russia Growth: Russia returned to growth with 1.3% GDP expansion in Q2, but economists caution the rebound may not be sustained. Digital Finance Push (Pakistan/Tripura): Pakistan’s finance chief met the Digital Authority to expand digital finance and interoperability, while Tripura and Salesforce plan AI-economy skills for 10,000+ learners. Elections & Reform (Zambia): Zambia votes with living costs and reform credibility front and center. Disaster Relief (Colombia): Colombia declared an economic emergency to speed earthquake relief and reconstruction amid a tight fiscal backdrop. Local Economic Friction (Assam-Arunachal): An indefinite border blockade escalated into clashes, disrupting trade and travel. Markets (Nigeria): Nigeria’s NGX fell 1.12% on sell-offs, led by sharp drops in consumer and banking-linked stocks.

US Inflation Watch: July CPI rose just 0.1% and core inflation cooled to 2.5% year-on-year, easing pressure on the Fed even as officials weigh whether inflation is truly done. Fed & Markets: Investors pared bets on a September hike after the report, but “broader” price pressures still loom. Iran Economic Pressure: A US naval blockade halted Iran’s oil exports from Aug. 1, deepening an already dire economy marked by very high inflation and shrinking incomes. Trade & Tariffs: Canada’s small exporters are bracing for Trump’s looming 50% tariff threat, warning of major dislocation if a deal isn’t reached by Aug. 19. California Antitrust Cost: A proposed AB 1776 antitrust expansion could cost California $670B in lost activity and $9B in tax revenue, according to an industry analysis. BRICS Capital Push: India’s FM said BRICS growth engines face hurdles mobilizing private capital and called for frameworks to unlock investment. Local Growth & Jobs: Canada announced funding for B.C. projects including Nanaimo’s Harmac Pacific pulp mill upgrades and steel production support, while the US small-business optimism index climbed but public sentiment stayed weak. Health & Finance Deal: Royalty Pharma agreed to fund Zealand Pharma with $100M tied to rusfertide economics. Policy & Skills: Singapore’s economic strategy review highlights HR and AI-ready talent as a competitive edge. Regional Business: Mindanao’s MinBizCon spotlighted Northern Mindanao’s trillion-peso economy and inclusive growth through innovation.

Tata Power Struggle / Corporate Governance: Tata Sons chairman N. Chandrasekaran is set to exit after a board deadlock left his reappointment unresolved, with trusts reportedly pushing conditions he wouldn’t accept—raising leadership clarity issues for major group projects. Nigeria FX & Reserves: The naira weakened in official trading but firmed at some desks; interbank dollar turnover plunged and reserves rose to about $52.1bn, underscoring tight liquidity. Oil & Geopolitics: Oil prices rose as US-Iran deal hopes faded and Iran signaled Hormuz would stay closed without its demands, keeping supply-risk front and center. Qatar Growth Resilience: Qatar’s central bank said 2025 growth stayed solid, driven by non-hydrocarbon expansion, with low inflation and stable real estate. Singapore Markets: JPMorgan lifted its Singapore stocks target on AI-boosted growth and a valuation gap narrowing, while the STI continues to outperform. UK Business Activity: NatWest’s tracker showed business activity rising in most UK regions as cost pressures eased. India Payments Policy: Debate over UPI fees is heating up, but officials say consumers won’t be charged for UPI transactions for now. Ola Electric Incentives: India’s PLI timelines for Ola’s battery unit were revised, extending the incentive window through 2031 and potentially unlocking up to ₹7,240 crore. US International Students: Projections warn the US could see up to 112,000 fewer international students next year amid tighter post-2025 visa and stay rules. Climate & Disaster Costs: Swiss Re estimated global natural-catastrophe losses at $100bn in the first half of 2026, with El Niño risks still looming.

Circular Economy & Batteries: UNIDO and CATL signed a framework with plans for circular-economy cooperation, advanced batteries, and green industrial demos, with standards and market access coordination. Banking & Jobs (Bangladesh): UCO Bank held a Resource/MSME/Retail/Agriculture carnival in Tinsukia to expand lending; Bangladesh also moved to reopen closed jute mills via private leases, targeting thousands of jobs and major investment. Trade & Inflation (Turkey): Capital Economics warns Turkey’s rebalancing is stuck in a trade-off between cooling inflation and fixing external imbalances, likely keeping growth softer. Energy Policy (Nigeria): TUC backs private sector equity in refineries but rejects outright sale, arguing for a 49/51 state-private model to reduce political interference. AI & Cloud: Quantinuum and Oracle will deploy Helios on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure for hybrid quantum-AI workloads; EY formalized “agent economics” for budgeting and governance of autonomous AI. Markets & Consumer Demand: Cava beat Q2 expectations despite food-safety worries, while Payscale says 2026 raises average ~3.4% and affordability remains strained. Digital Finance Regulation (Nigeria): CBN launched a new virtual assets sandbox with separate tracks for VASPs and data-enabled financial services. Geopolitics & Sanctions: Multiple reports highlight the US shift toward economic pressure on Iran, with knock-on risks for global growth.