AGP Executive Report

US Monetary Policy Watch: White House economist Chris Phelan said the Fed may be done hiking for 2026 after a weak September jobs report, with hiring slowing but unemployment still near a “healthy” level. AI & Jobs Regulation: Malaysia’s communications minister warned that AI, the gig economy and e-commerce need workforce planning and guardrails so “creative destruction” doesn’t turn into job losses and unfair pay. Regional Growth Upgrades: AMRO lifted Malaysia’s growth forecast to 5.1% for 2026 on AI-related exports and investment, while flagging inflation around 2%. Central Asia Connectivity: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the UAE signed an MoU to study a rail corridor linking Central Asia to Pakistan’s seaports, with Afghanistan in the route. EU Trade & Health: The EU temporarily suspended Namibia fresh meat imports after an FMD outbreak, while allowing some processed products. Digital Economy: Singapore reported its digital economy hit S$144.1bn in 2025 (19.3% of GDP) as AI adoption among SMEs rose. Energy Corridor Pitch: Türkiye’s “Development Road” project was touted as an energy corridor worth up to $80bn annually if scaled. Nigeria Economy Snapshot: Nigeria’s Q2 2026 GDP grew 4.43% y/y, but electricity supply contracted 10.63%, underscoring power constraints.

Digital Payments & Skills: Pakistan’s KPEZDMC and IMSciences signed an MoU to place trainees into on-the-job training inside economic zones, aiming to turn hi-tech and digital training into workplace-ready skills. Agriculture & Food Exports: Pakistan’s livestock lobby urged faster adoption of modern food-safety and export certification, saying only 4% of milk is processed and reforms could unlock $3–$5bn in annual export revenue. Payments Scale-Up: 1LINK expects payment transactions to top 12bn in 2026, with throughput nearing Rs90tn, as digital rails expand across banks, businesses and government. Farm Support Pressure: Kissan Board Pakistan demanded wheat and sugarcane support prices be announced immediately, warning of nationwide protests if farmers aren’t paid remuneratively. Farm Lending Bottlenecks: Pakistan’s central bank said weak insurance, lack of accredited warehouses and limited finance access are key constraints on lending to farmers. Macro Outlook: Namibia cut its 2026 growth forecast sharply, citing underperformance. Politics & Economy: Brazil’s election vote count opened with Flavio Bolsonaro leading Lula, as voters weigh corruption and economic anxiety. Fed Watch: US consumer inflation came in softer than expected, giving the Fed more room before further rate moves. Tech Talent Pay: Singapore’s salary guide flags strong demand for AI, data and cybersecurity skills even as hiring and wage growth stay cautious. Tourism & Jobs: Ghana’s recovery question is whether it reaches the “kitchen table,” despite improving inflation and growth. Local Business Boost: Dubai CommerCity is set to expand with Dh1.8bn to accelerate digital commerce growth.

Nigeria Markets & FX: The NGX All-Share fell 0.52% and investors lost about ₦812bn in a week, while the naira moved to around ₦1,330 per dollar in trading. Nigeria Growth Pulse: Nigeria’s composite PMI rose to 53.0 in September for a fourth straight month, with stronger industrial output but uneven sector performance. Policy Debate in Nigeria: VP Kashim Shettima defended Tinubu’s reforms, saying subsidy removal and FX unification prevented collapse; the government also pushed an e-logistics plan with electric tricycles and buses. Property & Costs: Ikoyi land prices reportedly tripled to ~₦6m per sqm, sparking debate over whether the jump is driven by fundamentals or “feelings.” Investor Education: India’s NISM launched a World Investor Week programme focused on financial awareness and cyber safety. Digital Economy & Skills: ASEAN’s DEFA framework is set for signing in November, aiming to make cross-border digital work easier—if skills can be recognized. Global Trade & Energy: Economists urged India to keep markets open and adapt fertiliser and subsidy policy to geopolitical shocks; former Singapore FM George Yeo said India and China have stockpiles to manage energy disruptions. Regional Development: World Bank is close to approving Jordan’s $200m youth-tech-jobs project restructuring, extending timelines and shifting funds toward jobs and training. UAE Space Economy: The UAE is pushing to turn space capabilities into broader economic value under its 2031 strategy. Scams & Online Safety: A Germany-focused report warns fake shops and phishing are causing billions in annual losses, urging basic website checks.

Australia Politics & Inflation: Cabinet Secretary Andrew Charlton defended Treasurer Jim Chalmers after a rate hike and inflation jump, arguing the government avoided recession despite global shocks and housing pressures. Ghana Economy & Jobs: Opposition leader Mahamudu Bawumia attacked the NDC’s “24-hour economy,” saying it has turned into “24-hour demolitions” and failed to deliver jobs, while criticizing La Pleasure Beach demolitions and cost-of-living relief. Nigeria Politics & Economic Hardship: Vice President Kashim Shettima urged Nigerians to back Tinubu’s reforms, saying fuel subsidy withdrawal and exchange-rate changes “saved the economy,” while the ADC rejected The Economist’s 2027 election forecast as “a forecast is not a verdict.” Energy Economics (Pakistan): A new report argues fossil gas is “bad economics” for the global south, citing Pakistan’s LNG diversion, spot-price exposure, and Rs3.3tn circular debt spreading costs across the economy. Trade & Blue Economy: A ports-focused brief highlights how port expansion could unlock blue-economy value, with the port infrastructure market set to surge through 2032. Consumer Policy: Coverage of Labour’s plan to tackle “drip pricing” targets subscription and checkout fee traps. US Macro Backdrop: Reporting notes Americans’ economic anxiety is rising even as political messaging claims growth.

Global Uncertainty & Resilience: India’s FM Nirmala Sitharaman warned that uncertainty is now a “standing condition” of the global economy, urging resilience built on strategic resource security, diversified trade, and more private R&D and skills investment. U.S. Labor & Consumer Mood: The U.S. added about 29,000 jobs in September—below expectations—with unemployment ticking up, while Americans’ consumer confidence remains stuck in post-pandemic gloom. Energy Prices & Policy: Oil fell after Europe agreed to release diesel/crude reserves to ease prices, while India’s leaders also flagged how sanctions, tariffs, and export controls are increasingly used for strategic purposes. Nigeria FX & Market Pulse: The naira slipped slightly to about N1,330 per dollar, and the Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index fell 0.16% as investors watched 2027 political developments. Regional Growth Moves: Kenya’s refinery push and Vietnam’s near-10% growth in Q3 highlight how investment and industrial scaling are driving momentum. Digital & Jobs Focus: Malaysia urged youth to master AI and quantum to power growth, while Africa’s digital economy push is tied to governance and practical job outcomes.

US Labor Market: The September jobs report landed softer than expected, with employers adding just 29,000 jobs and unemployment edging up to 4.2%, raising fresh questions about how long the hiring slowdown can last. Housing & Rates: Mortgage rates climbed again, with the 30-year fixed rate hitting 7.28%, pushing up monthly payments and worsening the “lock-in” effect that keeps homes off the market. Fuel Economy Fight: California and a coalition of states and cities sued the Trump administration over weaker vehicle fuel-efficiency rules, arguing the standards were set too low and could cost drivers hundreds of billions in fuel savings. Canada Trade/Unions: Canada’s push to speed investment and approvals is colliding with organized labor, as Ottawa tries to reduce US dependence amid tariff pressure. UK Business Lending: EY forecasts UK bank lending growth to more than halve in 2026 as uncertainty and higher costs make firms rein in investment. Circular Economy: Qatar is expanding recycling and resource recovery, recycling millions of tonnes of construction waste and building out recycling capacity to cut costs and reduce raw-material depletion. Global Notes: IMF says El Salvador’s growth is outpacing expectations as security and investor confidence improve.

U.S. Consumer Mood vs. Jobs Reality: Even with a steady job market, Americans’ confidence is sliding to multi-year lows as prices bite and most blame Trump for higher costs, setting up a tense backdrop for upcoming hiring data. Oil & Energy Markets: Crude jumped after China suspended some fuel exports amid Middle East tensions, while diesel remains tight—another pressure point for households and businesses. Global Trade Strategy: Nigeria is overhauling its trade negotiation framework to unify priorities and strengthen non-oil exports, aiming to translate talks into jobs and industrial output. Banking & Capital Markets: Airtel Money’s UK IPO has started with a £250 minimum application and a £5.3bn valuation, while Nigeria’s NGX sees new listings and share-capital expansion moves. Skills for Growth: Sri Lanka is set to get an ADB $100m loan to upgrade TVET and boost women’s employment in nontraditional fields. Regional Development & Infrastructure: World Bank officials say Azerbaijan has room to deepen regional economic cooperation via infrastructure and the Trans-Caspian corridor. Climate & Work: Bangladesh heat stress is costing the economy heavily, hitting informal workers with exhaustion and lost income. Business & Tech: Leeds’ digital festival highlighted how AI, fintech, and skills pipelines are driving local economic momentum.

US Politics & Prices: An AP-NORC poll shows most Americans blame Trump for high prices, with only 26% approving his economy handling and 17% approving cost-of-living management, as he shifts to a “prices are coming down” message ahead of midterms. US Labor Signals: Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000, the lowest since mid-July, while economists still expect September job growth to cool to about 85,000. Ghana Industrial Push: Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson unveiled a “New Economy” plan to cut import dependence, boost local production, and create jobs. El Salvador Growth Check: The IMF projects 4.5% real GDP growth for 2026 and granted a Bitcoin-related waiver after a program breach, citing construction, tourism, remittances, and investment. Iran Sanctions: The US Treasury expanded “Operation Economic Outcast,” targeting Iran’s automotive and rail networks and a shadow banking “A7” network used to evade sanctions. Regional Snapshots: Turkey’s inflation is squeezing minimum-wage purchasing power; Pangasinan (Philippines) reported 4.3% 2025 growth with poverty falling; France’s public debt hit a record 119% of GDP, spotlighting election-era fiscal risk. Local Economy & Infrastructure: Calexico supervisor candidates spar over downtown investment and the New River’s pollution, while Florida’s airport board set a special meeting on runway safety, master-plan updates, and hangar funding.

US Economy & Fuel Rules: The US economy grew 2.2% in Q2, beating forecasts, even as the Trump administration rolled back fuel-efficiency standards—promising lower car prices but drawing warnings that higher gas costs could erase the savings. Nigeria Reform Push: President Tinubu framed reforms as “the age of prosperity,” tying job creation and industrialization to a new phase, while supporters cite improving growth and FX progress. Housing Pressure: An economist says house prices could fall as much as 15%, with risks of negative equity rising as rates stay tight. China Outlook: Analysts warn China’s next-year outlook could be worse as deflation, weak consumption, and stalled property weigh on demand. Energy & Industry: Kenya’s Dangote East Africa refinery is pitched as a manufacturing boost, while Nigeria’s Lamu LNG push aims to revive the local manufacturing and port economy. Regional Trade & Stability: GCC leaders stressed fiscal resilience and trade cooperation; Russia’s economy minister urged preserving the WTO amid trade-dispute gridlock. Climate & Water Costs: The Caspian Sea hit a 48-year low, raising risks for ports, oil and gas, and coastal livelihoods. Tech & Data Centers: Wisconsin debates data-center economics—balancing sales-tax breaks against potential local tax hikes—while Sri Lanka positions itself as a data-center and cashless-economy hub.

U.S. Growth Beat: The Commerce Department revised second-quarter GDP growth up to 2.2%, driven by stronger consumer spending and business investment tied to AI infrastructure, even as inflation and bond yields keep markets on edge. Fuel Shock Politics: With Iran-linked energy disruptions pushing diesel to record highs and consumer confidence near a 12½-year low, Trump admitted he’s “done a very bad job” explaining the economy ahead of November midterms. Inflation Pressure Abroad: France’s inflation jumped to 3.0% y/y in September on energy costs, while France’s targeted support still left prices rising. Regional Business Support: Ontario is investing $49M over three years to expand small-business advisory centres, adding mentorship and funding access across 50+ locations. Tourism as a Growth Plan: Vietnam’s Lam Dong targets tourism to reach ~40M visitors by 2030 and lift tourism’s direct contribution to about 12% of GRDP. Local Resilience Lens: A study in Emporia, Kansas highlights “supplementation” through diversification to cushion rural economies during downturns. Energy Infrastructure Push: Trump announced $54B in South Korean investment for Alaska LNG, part of a broader $200B package. World Cup Spillover: NYC says the 2026 World Cup delivered about $2B in local economic impact and supported 12,000+ jobs.

Middle East Energy & Costs: EU officials say Brussels paid €100B+ extra for imported oil and gas this year due to global price spikes, pushing a faster pivot to domestic power and grid upgrades. Ukraine War Economy: Ukraine’s economy is losing about $45M per hour during air-raid stoppages, with a two-tier alert system aimed at keeping more businesses running. Iran Pressure on Households: Iran banned luxury car imports as war-driven currency and living-cost strain deepens. Global Markets & Rates: Nobel laureate Paul Krugman blasts the Trump administration over Treasury yield surges, calling it “bond-market humiliation,” as investors fret about Iran and inflation. AI Infrastructure Economics: Bain estimates AI data centers and chips may require $6T/year by 2031, far beyond today’s AI revenue streams. China Manufacturing Rebound: China’s PMIs returned to expansion in September, with manufacturing and services both back above 50. Regional Trade Deals: Qatar and Saudi Arabia reviewed ways to boost trade and private-sector activity; Oman and Uzbekistan discussed industrial projects and logistics corridors. UK Growth Update: UK Q2 GDP was revised up to 0.5%, led by services and construction, ahead of budget politics. Local Economy: New York’s 2026 World Cup brought about $2B in activity and drew 180K fans to Queens.

Fuel-Economy Rollback: The U.S. finalized sharply lower vehicle fuel-economy targets through 2031, a move critics say will mean more pollution and higher gas costs even as officials tout lower sticker prices. Consumer Mood: Americans’ confidence slid to the lowest level since 2014 as gas and other prices stayed high while wages lagged, adding pressure ahead of midterms. Energy & Markets: Wall Street is increasingly focused on Middle East-driven oil and inflation risks, with investors less willing to trust short-term “peace” headlines. Nebraska Growth Push: Gov. Jim Pillen signed an executive order creating a statewide working group to speed business recruitment and build a unified site-selection database. Jordan Remittances & Oil Costs: Experts urged Jordan to steer rising remittances into investment, while higher global oil prices widened the gap between international costs and domestic fuel pricing. Local Economies: Los Angeles County projects major job and output gains from the 2028 Olympics; Wyoming airports study points to $3.5B annual economic impact; and Georgia’s Children’s Museum of Pooler is estimated to generate $8.7M yearly. Health Equity: England’s NHS Race and Health Observatory commissioned a study to quantify the economic cost of racism and race-based healthcare inequities. Population Strain: Northern Mariana Islands officials warned the territory is losing about 1,000 residents a year due to limited opportunities, shrinking the tax base. Policy Watch: The U.S. Supreme Court will hear a case that could reshape how governments use nuisance laws against energy producers.

US Auto Policy: Trump’s administration finalized a rollback of Biden-era fuel economy rules, setting a 2031 target of 34.9 mpg versus 50.4 mpg before—critics warn drivers may pay more at the pump. Central Banking & Housing: Australia’s RBA lifted rates to a 15-year high, with analysts warning mortgage stress could worsen as recession risks rise. China Growth Mix: China’s service sector is now driving 66.1% of H1 2026 growth, supported by policy support and resilient consumption. Iran Currency Crisis: Iran’s rial hit a new record low as war strains economic stability. Africa Resources & Sovereignty: Burkina Faso opened its first gold refinery, aiming to process and certify gold domestically rather than export raw material. South Asia Finance: Sri Lanka’s NDB Bank said a Deloitte forensic review pegged fraud at Rs13.64bn, raising governance concerns. Business Regulation: Nigeria’s court ordered NMDPRA to keep granting import licences to specific petroleum marketers, citing non-compliance with the Petroleum Industry Act. Digital Economy: India’s MSME and MoSPI signed an MoU to share Udyam registration data via APIs to strengthen its business statistical register. Regional Trade Links: Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia discussed a roadmap for trade, transport links, and supply chains. Infrastructure & Growth: Kazakhstan and China are pushing from raw-material trade toward integrated production chains.

US Auto Policy: The Trump administration finalized a rollback of Biden-era fuel economy rules, cutting the 2031 CAFE target to about 34.9 mpg from 50.4 mpg and arguing it will lower new-car prices by roughly $1,300, while critics warn of higher gas costs and worse air quality. Economic Signals: A Georgia Southern “Economic Monitor” says the Savannah metro economy “sputtered” in Q2 with weak employment growth, even as port and logistics activity held up. Consumer Demand Watch: Fewer Americans are flying, with TSA checkpoint declines flagged as a potential early warning for a broader slowdown. Health Care Costs: MGMA is drafting legislation to curb automatic downcoding in Medicare Advantage claims, aiming to reduce payment pressure on physicians. Regional Growth & Jobs: Indiana’s IEDC says 69 companies plan expansions this year, targeting 5,385 new jobs with above-average wages. Energy & Infrastructure: El Salvador broke ground on a 115 kV transmission line to strengthen grid reliability and support growth. Business Climate: Bahrain’s Chamber approved new chairs for sector committees, including tech/AI and sustainable energy. Local Economies: San Antonio reports 48,000+ verified small businesses supporting 326,000 jobs, with new applications rising. Trade Diplomacy: China-US economic and trade consultations ended with a positive consensus, including tariff-reduction progress and new dialogue mechanisms. Sports Economy: Economists say LA28 Olympics organizers may face a transportation funding gap that could disrupt city commerce.

US Rates & Inflation Watch: Fresh data this week is expected to strengthen the case for an October Fed hike, with investors weighing robust growth against still-elevated inflation and election-year timing. Bond Market Signals: Analysts warn bond yields are again worrying investors, as the yield curve hints at a shift from “hot inflation” risk toward “policy getting too tight.” Energy Prices & FX: The dollar hovered near a two-month high as oil rose on renewed US-Iran tensions, keeping inflation pressure in focus. AI Spending Boom: Multiple reports flag that massive AI data-center investment could overheat an already “running hot” economy, making inflation harder to tame. Germany Labor Supply: Germany says 27% of workers have immigrant roots, underscoring how migration supports key sectors amid labor shortages. Minimum Wage Debate (Malaysia): Malaysia’s economy minister says any move toward a RM2,000 minimum wage should wait for Budget 2027 and consider impacts on MSMEs. Tourism Diversification (Saudi): Saudi Arabia climbed to 29th in the WEF travel and tourism index, reflecting Vision 2030 momentum. Digital Economy (Nigeria): Nigeria’s NITDA pushes “Hire from Nigeria” and AI-augmented digital services to expand globally competitive exports. Debt & Growth (Zambia): Zambia targets average 7% growth over three years as it builds on external debt restructuring and seeks a new IMF program.

Supermarket Politics in NZ: ACT leader David Seymour called promises to break up New Zealand’s supermarket duopoly “unethical,” arguing scale keeps shelves stocked and prices lower, and warning it would deter entrepreneurs and investors. Fed & Rates Watch (US): Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Fed to stay “open minded” on interest rates, pointing to AI and deregulation as inflation buffers while bond yields react to fuel-price shocks tied to the Iran conflict. Food & Trade Pressure (Canada): Farm Credit Canada says Canada’s food and beverage makers saw sales rise in H1 2026, but margin risk is growing as tariffs, counter-tariffs, and energy/freight volatility bite. US Fuel-Economy Rollback: The Trump administration is set to finalize a rollback of Biden-era fuel-economy rules, ending the EV mandate and targeting fleet efficiency already met by 2024—sparking debate over consumer costs. Tourism Resilience (WEF): The WEF reports travel and tourism conditions improved across most economies since 2024, but destinations still face geopolitical, climate, workforce, and infrastructure strain. Nigeria Debt Update: Nigeria’s public debt stock rose to N166.79tn by June 30, 2026, with domestic debt the larger share. Egypt Economic Coordination: Egypt’s PM and central bank reviewed the transformation program, inflation, FX reserves, and rising remittances. Iraq Budget: Iraq’s economy council approved the draft 2027 federal budget, emphasizing non-oil revenue and fiscal discipline.