AGP Executive Report

Digital Infrastructure & Telecom: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim urged more firms to use 5G to lift productivity and innovation, while pushing greener, secure networks and local talent pipelines. Gig Work Rules: The ILO adopted the first global treaty to protect platform gig workers, aiming to extend basic labor rights to app-based drivers and delivery workers worldwide. Geopolitics & Growth: The World Bank expects Jordan’s growth to reach 3% by 2028, while warning MENAP faces slower expansion from conflicts, energy and shipping costs. Cuba Reforms Under Pressure: Cuba announced a broad 2026 reform package—decentralizing state firms, expanding private activity, easing foreign trade rules, and cutting subsidies—after new U.S. sanctions hit CUPET. Investment & Jobs at Home: Ohio approved $10m in tax credits to spur private investment in underserved communities. Trade & Connectivity: China broke ground on a major Yangtze River mega waterway project to ease shipping bottlenecks and boost inland freight capacity. Consumer Mood: U.S. consumer sentiment ticked up in June as gasoline prices eased, but worries about inflation remain.

Global Trade & G7 Prep: China’s vice premier urged economic cooperation and “inclusive growth” in a Macron-led call ahead of next week’s G7, as the bloc weighs tougher trade steps over low-priced Chinese exports. UK Growth Shock: The UK economy contracted 0.1% in April, the first fall in months, with services down while manufacturing rose—an Iran-war drag tied to higher fuel costs. Central Banks: The ECB raised rates by 25 bps, saying inflation pressures from the Middle East mean a hike may be enough for now. Middle East Fallout: South Korea’s finance ministry sees recovery supported by exports and sentiment, but warns Mideast uncertainty could hit inflation and jobs. Energy & Investment: Cambodia says its renewable buildout (hydro/solar) has kept electricity prices near pre–Hormuz levels; the Philippines certified 13 renewable projects under its Green Lane to speed permits. Policy & Trade Deals: India’s Piyush Goyal heads to Switzerland to push the TEPA trade pact; UAE/GCC growth is forecast to rebound in 2027-28 after 2026 slowdown. Local Economy Signals: Yorkshire & Humber business activity fell sharply in May as costs and uncertainty weighed on demand. Human Capital Pressure: Pakistan’s Economic Survey pegs 2025 floods losses at Rs822bn and warns growth targets were revised down; it also highlights health and nutrition gains.

Pakistan Economic Survey: Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb says Pakistan’s economy topped $452bn, with GDP growth at 3.7% in FY2025-26, services up 4.9% and manufacturing up 6.1%; reserves are above $17bn and the fiscal deficit sits at 0.7% of GDP, but Poverty & Jobs: poverty rose to 28.9% and unemployment hit 5.9 million, with rural poverty far higher than urban. Consumer Sentiment: Thailand’s consumer confidence slid to a 42-month low as Middle East tensions and high energy costs keep households cautious. Global Risk From Iran War: the World Bank warns the Iran conflict is the worst hit to the global economy since COVID, with fuel and growth pressures spreading. IMF Watch—Georgia: IMF forecasts Georgia growth at 6.5% in 2026 while inflation should ease, citing stronger buffers. Work & Trade Politics (Canada): a Senate report drew criticism from the Canadian Labour Congress, arguing it could weaken collective bargaining and workers’ right to strike. Creative Economy Funding: CAA and Integrated Media are launching a $250m holding company to back creator-economy businesses. Bangladesh Budget Push: officials tout a “creative” FY2026-27 budget aimed at production and investment, with tourism and the creative sector getting targeted support.

Middle East Spillovers: The World Food Programme warns the Iran war is starving millions via higher food and fuel costs and disrupted trade, with WFP forced to ration aid after major US/UN funding cuts. Pakistan Budget Push: Pakistan’s NEC approved a FY2026-27 development budget of 3.669tn rupees and set a 4% growth target, while the Economic Survey flags missed targets and rising inflation. EU Governance & Resilience: Vietnam and the EU reviewed economic governance support, while Ireland’s Tánaiste met EU Finance Ministers on resilience, competitiveness, and energy-driven inflation risks. Housing Affordability Shock: In metro Phoenix, even $140k incomes struggle to clear today’s home prices, underscoring how affordability—not just supply—has stalled the market. Ghana Digital Jobs: A Bolt/Ipsos study says Ghana’s gig and platform work now supports about $1bn a year, helping people earn flexibly across ride-hailing, delivery, and freelancing. South Africa Financial Risk: SARB flagged rising developed-economy sovereign debt as a global stability threat as refinancing and borrowing costs tighten. Nigeria Reform Debate: The IMF praised Nigeria’s reform progress but warned inflationary pressures from higher oil prices; meanwhile, opposition leaders attacked the government’s economic direction. Telecom Cost Cuts: MTN South Africa plans to cut R4bn–R6bn in costs by 2029 to offset weak home-market growth.

Geopolitics & Costs: The World Food Programme says the Iran war could push 45 million more people into severe food insecurity, with fuel and trade disruptions raising prices even beyond the Middle East. Sanctions & Security: The US Treasury’s OFAC sanctioned nine people and firms tied to Iran’s IRGC weapons procurement networks, targeting overseas supply and financial links. Central Banking: Bank of Canada held its 2.25% rate, with economists reading a “dovish” stance and “wiggle room” as it weighs weak growth against inflation risks from energy shocks. Ghana Growth: Ghana’s economy grew 6.4% in Q1 2026, led by services (ICT up 25.2%) and a rebound in industry, while inflation eased. South Africa Risks: SARB Governor Kganyago warned rising oil prices and tighter conditions could pressure South Africa’s financial system, even as resilience remains. AIIB Financing: Bangladesh signed a $250m AIIB loan for economic management and governance, as it seeks budget support amid Middle East-driven uncertainty. Policy Coordination: Pakistan’s Economic Survey 2025–26 lands Thursday with growth below target and inflation pressure returning, ahead of budget talks. Local Trade Boost: A new Pekanbaru–Melaka flight route aims to lift tourism and bilateral economic activity between Malaysia and Indonesia. Corporate Oversight: Bulgaria set up a consumer protection and anti-monopoly subcommittee, shaping how competition rules get enforced. UK Business Rules: The UK delayed major company accounts filing reforms to April 2028, giving firms more time to comply with transparency and anti-economic-crime changes.

Geopolitics & Food/Fuel Shock: The World Food Programme warns the Iran war is pushing tens of millions toward severe food insecurity as fuel and food prices rise and trade routes get disrupted, with added strain from US UN funding cuts. Energy & Growth Pressure: India is scrambling as higher oil costs weigh on the rupee, growth, and public finances; fuel demand in May fell 6.5% as consumers shift to alternatives. South Africa GDP Watch: SA’s economy grew 0.5% in Q1 for a sixth straight quarter, but economists warn Middle East-driven fuel and transport costs could mute momentum later in 2026. EU Sanctions: The EU proposes a new Russia sanctions package hitting banks, oil-related mechanisms, weapons makers, and crypto operators, aiming to squeeze Russia’s war financing. Climate/Policy: New Zealand’s ACT party is reigniting debate over emissions targets, arguing current policy is an economic “own-goal.” Circular Economy: South Africa’s Plastics Pact launched 2030 targets to boost recycling and circular growth. Digital/Jobs Narrative: LinkedIn says the hiring slump isn’t driven by AI, but by post-pandemic macro conditions. Local Economic Boosts: South Africa’s Comrades Marathon is expected to bring major visitor spending and temporary jobs. Fiji Fiscal Strain: Fiji faces a widening spending-revenue gap, ageing water infrastructure, and rising debt ahead of the 2026-27 budget.

Middle East Spillovers: The Iran war is pushing millions toward food insecurity as the World Food Programme warns of 45M more people facing severe hunger, with higher fuel and food costs and trade disruption compounding the damage. Energy Shock & Inflation: Gulf conflict fallout is driving inflation and forcing central banks toward a tighter stance, with Strait of Hormuz bottlenecks raising the risk of renewed oil spikes. US Politics Meets Gas Prices: A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump approval stuck near record lows, as voters expect higher gasoline costs and disapprove of his handling of living expenses. South Africa Growth Watch: South Africa’s GDP rose 0.5% in Q1, but economists warn Middle East tensions could hit confidence and consumer pressure. IMF Reform Signals: Nigeria’s government says the IMF endorsed Tinubu’s reforms, citing improved macro stability and FX operations, though poverty remains severe. Regional Integration Push: ASEAN leaders urged members to protect economic integration and resist fragmentation amid global instability. Tourism Boosts Local Economies: Wisconsin logged record tourism impact of $27B in 2025, while Christchurch’s Super Round delivered $13.1M+ in visitor spend. Anti-Corruption & Growth: Nigeria opened a new EFCC zonal office in Ekiti to strengthen the fight against economic and financial crimes.

FX & Inflation Watch: Nigeria’s naira slid at the start of the week on both official and parallel markets, while traders pointed to the CBN’s updated Foreign Exchange Manual as a potential support for liquidity and compliance. Middle East Shock to Asia: India is bracing for higher oil-driven inflation and fiscal strain as the Iran war keeps energy prices elevated and threatens supply routes. Growth Snapshots: South Korea’s economy grew 1.8% in Q1 on semiconductor-led exports and a jump in facilities investment; Morocco’s 2025 growth accelerated to 4.9% with uneven sector performance. Policy & Jobs: Malaysia’s economy minister said wage hikes must be paired with productivity gains, pushing employers to buy in. Investment & Development: Nigeria’s Invest Lagos 3.0 summit pitched Lagos as a private-sector engine for a $1tn economy; Oman signed new Duqm Special Economic Zone deals, including green hydrogen downstream phases. Digital Economy Funding: Kenya secured €102m EU support to expand connectivity and digital growth, plus more funding for the Blue Raman cable. UK Labor Warning: The CBI forecast UK unemployment could hit 5.5%, with Iran-related energy and inflation pressures weighing on hiring.

AI & Business Costs: The UK announced £200m to speed AI adoption by firms, expand training and “AI Growth Zones,” and reward responsible workplace transitions. Energy Security: As the Strait of Hormuz conflict drags on, Asia is still absorbing the worst of the energy shock—fuel, power and fertilizer pressures are hitting households and businesses. Hydrogen & Decarbonization: H2MOF says its solid-state hydrogen storage tech targets the main bottleneck for scaling hydrogen beyond electrification. Regional Trade & Infrastructure: Georgia and Azerbaijan-Türkiye back the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway as a trade and growth engine. Labor & Jobs: Canada’s GDP dip is being framed as “not a recession” by economists, while Indiana’s job losses keep stacking up year-over-year. External Sector Policy: India’s RBI opened forex swap tools for ECBs and FCNR(B) deposits to manage foreign-currency inflows. Middle East Economic Strain: Lebanon’s finance minister warns the economy could shrink 7–10% in 2026 if fighting continues. Tech, Finance & Markets: Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.5% as investors returned to AI-led tech. Crypto: A new take argues bitcoin is still huge, but no longer the whole story in crypto’s shift. Work & Welfare: Nigeria’s statistics overhaul push highlights how better data systems are needed for planning a $1tn economy. Blue Economy: Norway launched an ASEAN blue-economy development collaboration in Jakarta, linking ocean growth with ecosystem protection.

Sustainable Growth & Tourism: Egypt launched the Egyptian Red Sea Initiative to protect coral reefs, boost climate resilience, and drive sustainable tourism and green investment, with UNDP support and a focus on jobs and coastal livelihoods. Energy Efficiency Push: Türkiye targets $20B+ in energy-efficiency investments by 2030, aiming to cut energy use 16% and prevent 100M tons of emissions. Regional Trade & Integration: Gaziantep’s City Economies Summit will spotlight a new Türkiye–Syria trade and logistics push, including ideas for regulated border production zones. Cross-Border Investment: Fujairah Free Zone explored deeper economic cooperation with China, pitching its logistics and incentives to Chinese investors. Eurozone Confidence: Greece is back in the spotlight as the OECD and EU cite resilience; it was removed from macroeconomic imbalance surveillance, with markets watching for a possible credit upgrade. Tech & Jobs: Japan’s Q1 GDP grew 1.8% (annualized, revised down) as capital investment cooled, while exports rose. Circular Economy: Sephora NZ posted a fifth straight loss (net loss $5.3m in 2025) while Mecca NZ sales kept growing, highlighting uneven consumer demand. Labor Market Mood: UK recruiters reported more candidates and slower permanent hiring, with temporary work filling the gap amid uncertainty. Digital Infrastructure: Digital Realty opened Malaysia operations, planning to scale data center capacity to about 32MW. Housing Demand Shift: Cebu condos remain viable, but location is now the key driver as supply rises and buyers get pickier.

U.S. Jobs & Politics: Trump’s top economic adviser Kevin Hassett called the latest jobs report a rare bright spot, as May hiring surprised and unemployment stayed low, even while costs stay painful for households. Working-Class Message: New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani says Democrats are losing working people by not focusing on rent, healthcare, gas and food prices—an internal debate over how to win back the class. India Growth & FX Watch: PM Modi’s Economic Advisory Council meeting focused on “ease of living” and “ease of doing business,” with West Asia risks likely tied to crude, fertiliser, transport and rupee weakness after heavy foreign outflows. Subnational Funding: Nigeria experts stress that FAAC inflows are vital for states’ salaries and projects, so better use of allocations can lift infrastructure and growth. Global Shock From Iran War: OECD and others warn the Iran conflict is dragging global growth via energy, inflation and supply-chain damage. OPEC+ Supply: OPEC+ approved another July output rise of 188,000 bpd, keeping pressure on oil prices and Gulf economies. UAE Trade & Real Economy: UAE-Slovakia talks highlighted non-oil trade and sectors like energy, digitalisation and healthcare, while Dubai’s May property deals hit Dhs28.5bn.

Global Energy Shock: The Iran war is driving a major energy and trade disruption, with the IEA warning the Strait of Hormuz impact removes over 10 million barrels a day and raises recession risk worldwide. US Labor & Finance: The US added 172,000 jobs in May (unemployment 4.3%), boosting growth expectations while Fed-regulation debates flare as Michael Barr warns Trump-era banking policy could damage long-term stability. India Demographics & Policy: India’s fertility rate is now below replacement (TFR ~1.9), with Sanjeev Sanyal saying the peak births were in 2001; meanwhile PM Modi’s Economic Advisory Council meeting focused on reforms and “ease of living/doing business” amid West Asia uncertainty. Pakistan Water Stress: Sukkur Barrage canal systems face severe irrigation shortages, threatening Kharif crops and exposing governance and water-allocation tensions. Africa Credit & Blue Economy: AfDB flags Nigeria’s private-sector credit remains low (9.4% of GDP), while island states push for better sovereign credit ratings to unlock climate and blue financing. Household Costs: India’s cooking gas remains among the cheapest globally, with PMUY beneficiaries paying far less than market-linked costs despite West Asia-linked price pressures. Security Tech: US lawmakers warn a GPS disruption could be “devastating” to the economy, as GPS jamming/spoofing threats grow.

Bangladesh Economic Blueprint: PM adviser Titumir says Bangladesh is building a “Bangladesh for All” model to reach a $1 trillion economy by 2034, backed by investment growth, industrial revival, admin reform, and a Tk 60,000 crore restructuring push. Rural Credit Relief: Pakistan’s budget debate is also in focus, while Bangladesh’s Swapon backs a Tk 10,000 agro-loan waiver for marginal farmers to protect rural livelihoods. Policy Capacity in Business: Bahrain reactivates a Strategic Thinking Group to strengthen research and translate findings into practical policy for the private sector. India Growth & Risk Watch: Modi’s Economic Advisory Council meeting weighs West Asia-driven risks to trade, oil supplies, and commodities while keeping reforms on “Ease of Living/Doing Business.” Global Tech Integration: APEC’s Pedrosa highlights digital cooperation and AI as key drivers of economic integration, especially for SMEs. Markets & Costs: Gold and silver slide after strong US jobs data lifts rate expectations; fuel prices are flagged as a household-budget pressure point amid West Asia tensions. Local Economy Signals: Barrie’s downtown cleanup links litter to broader social and economic factors, while Auckland faces a construction slump that’s hitting jobs and confidence.

India Growth Watch: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and PM Modi both pointed to India’s FY26 GDP growth of 7.7% (7.8% in Q4) as proof the economy is resilient despite global uncertainty. Central Banking: The RBI kept the repo rate at 5.25% but raised its FY27 inflation forecast to 5.1% and trimmed the growth outlook to 6.6%, citing crude prices and geopolitical risks. Policy Debate: Kishan Reddy pushed back on Rahul Gandhi’s “economic tsunami” claim, arguing India’s activity indicators and buffers remain strong. Global Power Shift: Vladimir Putin said BRICS now contributes more to global growth than the G7 and called for a new Russian investment cycle as growth moderates. Eurozone Drag: Ireland’s slump pulled the eurozone into reverse in Q1, underscoring uneven recovery. US Labor Momentum: The US added 172,000 jobs in May; unemployment held at 4.3%, though economists warn higher energy costs could pressure spending. Trade & Tech Ties: The UAE and US advanced an expanded economic and AI partnership, while the US also moved toward a long-awaited Open Skies deal with Cambodia. Local Economy Boosts: Madison’s Overture Center projects nearly $67m in economic impact, and Port Everglades estimates $48.3b in activity tied to fuel, cargo, and cruise. Geopolitical Cost of War: A UK editorial said Iran-related disruptions are hitting households via higher energy, food, and mortgage costs.

US Jobs Beat: The U.S. added 172,000 jobs in May and kept unemployment at 4.3%, but economists warn the “clear pain point” is weak wage growth versus inflation. Canada Labor Resilience: Canada also posted a strong May—88,000 jobs gained and unemployment down to 6.6%—supporting the view the economy isn’t in recession. Oil Shock Risk: Global oil inventories are running dangerously low as Strait of Hormuz reopening talks stall, raising fears of another price spike that could hit growth and markets. Eurozone Downturn: A revised 0.2% euro-zone contraction in Q1 was driven by a “staggering” Irish GDP slump, highlighting how volatile cross-border flows can distort the picture. Russia at SPIEF: Putin admitted momentum is slowing while billionaires criticized tight monetary policy as a “trap,” underscoring strain from war and sanctions. India Growth & Policy Push: India reported 7.7% FY26 GDP growth and is pressing its “Reform Express,” while RBI/finance moves aim to attract long-term foreign capital and support the rupee. AI & Energy Investment: Canada launched its National AI strategy, and the ISA/World Bank backed a bankable solar pipeline for Pacific SIDS—both tied to jobs and productivity. Local Economy Funding: New York approved $20M for East Williamsburg’s revitalization, targeting corridors, public spaces, workforce and housing. Energy Affordability Watch: Nigeria’s cooking gas price surge is drawing human-rights backlash over affordability and access.

Energy Shock Watch: The OECD warns the Middle East conflict could push global growth down to 2.1% in 2026 (and 1.8% in 2027) if Strait of Hormuz disruptions drag on, lifting oil, gas and fertilizer prices and squeezing confidence. Global Outlook: The IEA adds that emergency oil buffers are running low and warns the world could hit a “red zone” if Hormuz isn’t fully reopened by late June/July/August. Monetary Policy: India’s RBI kept the repo rate at 5.25%, signaling caution as inflation risks and global uncertainty persist. Trade & Tariffs: The USTR proposes forced-labour tariffs on 60 economies, with Singapore facing a potential 12.5% hit; comments run until July 6. US Politics & Economy: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended Trump’s agenda in a heated House hearing, arguing tax and deregulation are boosting working Americans. Local Growth Pressure: Johannesburg business leaders warn the city’s governance and financial crisis is a “national economic emergency,” demanding urgent reforms. Skills for Jobs: Malaysia kicked off TVET Day 2026, pitching vocational training as a competitiveness engine. AI & Creator Economy: YouTube’s AI remix push raises new questions about control and rights in the creator economy.